TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 23, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 28 distinct price thresholds, creating a fundamental mismatch in both data source and resolution methodology.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi resolve the same event window (March 23, 5 PM ET) using different data sources (Binance XRP/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI) and fundamentally different resolution architectures (binary directional vs. 28-tier price ladder). This creates potential for non-correlated outcomes.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket outcome depends on intracandle open-close comparison; Kalshi outcomes depend on whether the RTI benchmark crosses 28 distinct thresholds. Price divergence between Binance spot and CF RTI is the primary risk vector. Monitor both data sources independently leading up to settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary directional market: resolves UP if XRP/USDT 1H candle close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Uses Binance spot price data. Single outcome per event window.Kalshi:
28 independent price-level markets. Each resolves YES if CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average exceeds a specific threshold (0.8999 to 1.6799). Multiple simultaneous outcomes possible.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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