TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP price moves up or down on March 20, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 50 distinct price thresholds, all resolving to Yes if exceeded.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ different price sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks index), different measurement windows (1H candle vs. 60-second average), and different resolution structures (binary vs. 50 threshold-based markets). Price outcomes may not align.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate bets on different price indices. Polymarket is a simple directional bet on Binance; Kalshi offers 50 micro-bets on CF Benchmarks thresholds. Cross-platform arbitrage or hedging requires explicit price correlation analysis.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 20, 2026. Uses single exchange spot market data finalized at candle close.Kalshi:
50 separate Yes/No markets, each tied to a specific CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI price threshold (0.8999 to 1.8799 in 0.02 increments). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of the index before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold. Uses institutional benchmark index, not spot exchange.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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