TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET

Volume:
$39,109

XRP Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

XRP Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 21, 2026

Closed: Mar 20, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.35991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,425
N/A
N/A
$550
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.41991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,359
N/A
N/A
$492
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.39991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,301
N/A
N/A
$476
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.97991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$762
N/A
N/A
$762
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.13991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$497
N/A
N/A
$497
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.37991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$376
N/A
N/A
$251
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.31991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$268
N/A
N/A
$268
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.23991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$236
N/A
N/A
$118
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.95991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$196
N/A
N/A
$196
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.91991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.33991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
$56
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.89991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$95
N/A
N/A
$95
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.27991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.29991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$82
N/A
N/A
$82
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.03991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.09991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.01991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.99991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.05991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.07991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.11991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.93991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.87991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,929
N/A
N/A
$3,929
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.47991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,692
N/A
N/A
$624
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP price moves up or down on March 20, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 50 distinct price thresholds, all resolving to Yes if exceeded.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ different price sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks index), different measurement windows (1H candle vs. 60-second average), and different resolution structures (binary vs. 50 threshold-based markets). Price outcomes may not align.Hero tip: Treat these as separate bets on different price indices. Polymarket is a simple directional bet on Binance; Kalshi offers 50 micro-bets on CF Benchmarks thresholds. Cross-platform arbitrage or hedging requires explicit price correlation analysis.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 20, 2026. Uses single exchange spot market data finalized at candle close.
  • Kalshi: 50 separate Yes/No markets, each tied to a specific CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI price threshold (0.8999 to 1.8799 in 0.02 increments). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of the index before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold. Uses institutional benchmark index, not spot exchange.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.