TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 50 distinct price thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources, measurement methodologies, and resolution structures. Polymarket is a single binary (close >= open on Binance 1H candle), while Kalshi offers 50 separate threshold-based markets using CF Benchmarks RTI with 60-second averaging.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets, not hedges. Polymarket's binary logic (up/down) does not directly map to any single Kalshi threshold. Confirm your data source preference: Binance XRP/USDT spot (Polymarket) vs CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI (Kalshi). Monitor both sources in the hour leading to 5 PM ET on March 13, 2026 for potential divergence.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Single binary market: resolves Up if XRP/USDT close >= open for the 1H candle starting at 5 PM ET on March 13, 2026. Data source: Binance XRP/USDT pair. Resolution is deterministic once the candle closes.Kalshi:
50 separate Yes/No markets, each tied to a specific price threshold (0.7999 to 1.7799 XRPUSD). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold. Data source: CF Benchmarks Real Time Index, not spot exchange.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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