TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$236,615,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,344,513,070
577,941
Markets across
14,530
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,090
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 1, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 39 discrete price band outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different settlement values: Polymarket uses binary directional logic (close >= open) on Binance XRP/USDT spot data, while Kalshi uses 39 discrete price bands from CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI. The data sources, granularity, and outcome structures are incompatible.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these markets as correlated or hedgeable. Polymarket resolves Up if price closes higher or flat; Kalshi resolves Yes only if the 60-second average lands in one of 39 specific 0.02-width bands. Basis risk exists between Binance spot and CF Benchmarks RTI. Trade each market independently based on your view of the respective data source.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down market. Resolves Up if XRP/USDT close >= open for the 1H candle starting at 5 PM ET on March 1, 2026. Data source: Binance XRP/USDT spot pair. Key Quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
39-outcome Yes/No market. Resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST falls within any of 39 specified price bands (0.02 width, ranging 0.82-1.5799+). Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index before 5 PM EST is between [X-Y]..., then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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