TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET

Volume:
$23,981

$1.34 to 1.3599

 - Kalshi

$1.34 to 1.3599 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 1, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.34 to 1.3599

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
Yes
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,906
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.38 to 1.3999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,036
N/A
N/A
$5,036
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.36 to 1.3799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
$23
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.57991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.42 to 1.4399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.4 to 1.4199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.16 to 1.1799

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.9 to 0.9199

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.84 to 0.8599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.06 to 1.0799

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.82 to 0.8399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.8199999 or below

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.46 to 1.4799

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.22 to 1.2399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.02 to 1.0399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.54 to 1.5599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.08 to 1.0999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.32 to 1.3399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.44 to 1.4599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.12 to 1.1399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.98 to 0.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.88 to 0.8999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.92 to 0.9399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.14 to 1.1599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 1, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 39 discrete price band outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different settlement values: Polymarket uses binary directional logic (close >= open) on Binance XRP/USDT spot data, while Kalshi uses 39 discrete price bands from CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI. The data sources, granularity, and outcome structures are incompatible.Hero tip: Do not treat these markets as correlated or hedgeable. Polymarket resolves Up if price closes higher or flat; Kalshi resolves Yes only if the 60-second average lands in one of 39 specific 0.02-width bands. Basis risk exists between Binance spot and CF Benchmarks RTI. Trade each market independently based on your view of the respective data source.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down market. Resolves Up if XRP/USDT close >= open for the 1H candle starting at 5 PM ET on March 1, 2026. Data source: Binance XRP/USDT spot pair. Key Quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 39-outcome Yes/No market. Resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST falls within any of 39 specified price bands (0.02 width, ranging 0.82-1.5799+). Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index before 5 PM EST is between [X-Y]..., then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.