TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD price closes higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on February 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 60-second averaging.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different data sources (Binance XRP/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index), different measurement methodologies (single candle close vs. open comparison vs. 60-second averaging across 50 discrete bands), and incompatible resolution logic (binary Up/Down vs. 50 Yes conditions with undefined No scenario). The markets are not interchangeable and may resolve to opposite outcomes at the same timestamp.Hero Tip:
These are two separate markets with incompatible mechanics. Polymarket bets on directional movement (close >= open); Kalshi bets on landing in one of 50 specific price bands. Confirm which data source aligns with your market view. On Kalshi, identify the price gaps between the 50 Yes bands—if the index lands outside all bands, the resolution outcome is undefined and may trigger a dispute or cancellation.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary directional market: resolves Up if XRP/USDT close price >= open price on the 1H candle starting Feb 13, 5 PM ET; otherwise Down. Uses Binance spot data only. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
50 discrete Yes-resolution conditions based on 60-second average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index before 5 PM EST on Feb 13, 2026. Covers price bands from below 0.82000 to above 1.7799, with 0.02 or 0.04 width per band. No explicit No condition; resolution if index falls outside all bands is undefined. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EST is [band], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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