TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and logic: Polymarket resolves based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open vs. close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index falling within specific price bands. These are different data sources, different methodologies, and different resolution criteria that will almost certainly produce conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. On Polymarket, you are betting on a simple directional move (close >= open on one candle). On Kalshi, you are betting on the price landing in one of 40 specific narrow bands—most price levels resolve YES on Kalshi but would resolve DOWN on Polymarket if the candle closes below open. Arbitrage risk is extreme; verify which platform's source you trust before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary UP/DOWN resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle: resolves UP if close price >= open price, DOWN otherwise. Single resolution source: Binance XRP/USDT pair. Quote: 'The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
40 separate YES/NO outcomes based on CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index 60-second average landing in specific price bands (0.92000–1.6799 in 0.02 increments, plus below 0.92000 and above 1.6799). All outcomes resolve YES; no explicit NO condition is stated. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is [band X], then the market resolves to Yes.'
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