TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Closed: May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) stock will touch specific price levels during May 2026. Across Polymarket and Predict, the consensus probability that COIN hits a low of $165 in May 2026 stands at 2.0%, with a secondary outcome at 1.4%. Resolution will be determined by Pyth using 1-minute candle configuration during regular trading hours, with fallback to official daily high/low from the primary exchange if Pyth is unavailable. Watch for COIN's price action as May 2026 approaches to assess whether the stock approaches these target levels.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect trader expectations about whether COIN will touch specific price levels in May 2026, independent of current spot price. These odds aggregate sentiment across Polymarket and Polymarket, where participants stake capital on discrete outcomes rather than directional bets. Market odds can diverge from spot price because they price in volatility, regulatory catalysts, and the probability of reaching threshold prices within a defined timeframe. Comparing odds to current spot price helps identify whether markets expect significant appreciation or consolidation.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Polymarket and Predict may show different implied probabilities for COIN price targets due to variations in user base composition, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket shows strong conviction on lower price levels, while Polymarket reflects minimal probability on higher targets. Differences also arise from timing of large trades, regional trader preferences, and platform-specific incentive programs. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms can persist due to withdrawal friction and market segmentation, allowing informed traders to exploit temporary mispricings.
The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026, marking the end of the May 2026 observation period. Resolution is determined by whether COIN's price touched the specified threshold at any point during May 2026. Outcomes are binary for each price level: either the target was hit or it was not. Traders holding winning positions receive payouts based on their stake and the odds at which they entered.
Key catalysts for COIN price movement include cryptocurrency market rallies, regulatory announcements affecting Coinbase's business, earnings reports and user growth metrics, Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility, and macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite. Institutional adoption trends, staking revenue changes, and competitive pressures from other exchanges can also drive sentiment. Geopolitical events, central bank policy shifts, and crypto-specific legislation in major markets may trigger sharp moves. Technical breakouts above resistance or below support levels could accelerate movement toward the $198,926 in cumulative trading volume observed across prediction markets.
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