TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum will reach or dip to specific price levels during March 2026. Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets measure whether ETH/USDT ever touches designated price thresholds during the calendar month, using Binance spot trading data as the authoritative source. The markets function as binary yes/no outcomes based on intraday price action rather than closing prices or month-end valuations.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on resolution source and scope. Polymarket resolves exclusively on Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle data with specific High/Low price thresholds, while Kalshi resolves on ETH price 'ever above' specified levels through March 31, 2026, without specifying the data source or exchange.Hero Tip:
If you trade these markets, note that Polymarket outcomes depend strictly on Binance 1m candle extremes (High for upside, Low for downside), while Kalshi uses a broader 'ever above' standard that may include prices from other sources or timeframes. A price spike on a different exchange or timeframe could resolve differently between platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based exclusively on Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle High prices (for upside targets) or Low prices (for downside targets) during March, with binary YES/NO outcomes tied to whether the specified price level is touched at any point. Key quote: 'This market will immediately resolve to Yes if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified.'Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on whether ETH price is 'ever above' specified thresholds through 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2026, without explicitly naming Binance or 1-minute candles as the resolution source. Key quote: 'If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Mar 31, 2026 is ever above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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