TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on March 31, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses a granular price-band approach with 75 specific price ranges measured via CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI index, while Polymarket uses a simpler binary comparison of the Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open versus close price.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses a granular price-band oracle (CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI) with 75 discrete YES outcomes and implicit NO zones; Polymarket uses a directional comparison (Binance SOL/USDT candle close vs open). The two platforms measure different price signals and may produce conflicting resolutions.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Kalshi can resolve YES only if the 60-second average price lands in one of its 75 bands; any price in a gap resolves NO. Polymarket resolves based purely on direction (up or down) regardless of magnitude. A 0.5% price move could trigger Polymarket UP but miss all Kalshi bands if it lands in a gap. Trade each platform's logic independently.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average price before 5 PM EDT on Mar 31, 2026. Resolves YES if price falls within any of 75 specific $1-wide bands (e.g., $44-$44.99, $45-$45.99, etc., up to above $116.99). Any price outside these bands resolves NO. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between [X]-[X.9999]... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Uses Binance SOL/USDT pair, 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM EDT on Mar 31, 2026. Resolves UP if close price >= open price; DOWN if close < open. Pure directional logic, no price-level thresholds. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle... Otherwise, this market will resolve to Down.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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