TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on March 30, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle comparison (open vs close) from Binance SOL/USDT, while Kalshi uses 60-second price averages from CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI index at multiple price thresholds. The markets fundamentally measure different things: directional movement vs absolute price level confirmation.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different settlement values: Polymarket resolves on directional price movement (1H candle open vs close on Binance), while Kalshi resolves on absolute price levels (60-second average of CF Benchmarks index against 73 distinct thresholds). The data sources, measurement windows, and resolution mechanics are incompatible.Hero Tip:
These are not the same market split across platforms. Polymarket's directional outcome is independent of price level; Kalshi's outcomes depend entirely on absolute price thresholds. Monitor Binance SOL/USDT 1H candle data for Polymarket and CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average for Kalshi separately. Arbitrage opportunities may exist if price levels and directional movement diverge from market expectations.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary directional resolution on Binance SOL/USDT 1H candle. Resolves "Up" if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 30, 2026. Pure directional bet independent of absolute price level. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
73 separate price-level confirmation markets using CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI index. Each market resolves Yes if the 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from $42.9999 to $116.9999). Absolute price level bet, not directional. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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