TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and logic. Polymarket resolves based on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average at a specific timestamp. These are different price feeds, different time windows, and different calculation methods, making simultaneous resolution impossible.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome depends on Binance candle data, while Kalshi's 50 separate Yes/No outcomes depend on CF Benchmarks price tiers. Price discrepancies between exchanges or timing misalignment could cause one platform to resolve Yes while the other resolves No. Verify which source matches your trading thesis before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves based on Binance SOL/USDT pair, comparing the open and close prices of the 1-hour candle beginning at April 3, 5PM ET. Market resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Single binary outcome. Source: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI price feed, calculating the simple average of 60 seconds of data before 5PM EDT on April 3, 2026. Contains 50 separate Yes/No markets, each with a different price threshold ($59.9999 to $108.9999). All resolve Yes if the 60-second average exceeds their respective threshold. Source: 'the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT.'
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