TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price will be up or down at 5 PM ET on April 11, 2026. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance SOL/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI index with 60-second averaging. Both markets measure directional price movement but rely on fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on a binary comparison of open vs. close prices on Binance SOL/USDT 1H candle, while Kalshi contains 75 separate price-level markets using CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI index with no binary Up/Down structure. These are structurally different market types that cannot coexist in a unified event group.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these as equivalent markets. Polymarket offers a simple binary outcome (Up if close >= open, Down otherwise). Kalshi offers 75 granular price-level bets, each resolving Yes/No independently based on whether the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI exceeds a specific threshold. A trader betting on Polymarket's 'Up' outcome will have a completely different risk/reward profile than betting on any single Kalshi price level. Verify which platform matches your intended strategy before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket is a binary Up/Down market resolving based on whether the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1H candle on Binance. Resolution source is Binance SOL/USDT pair, with the close 'C' and open 'O' displayed on the 1H candle graph used once data is finalized. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Down.'Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi contains 75 separate price-level markets, each resolving Yes if the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from $47.9999 to $121.9999), and No otherwise. No binary Up/Down structure exists. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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