TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Makina FDV above $100M one day after launch?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether Makina's token will reach a fully diluted valuation above $80M within one day of its public launch, aggregating data from Polymarket and Predict. The consensus probability for Makina FDV exceeding $80M one day after launch stands at 27.0%, with a secondary threshold of $100M at 25.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by multiplying total token supply by the token price at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch, using the most liquid available price source. Watch for Makina's official token launch announcement, as the market will resolve to No if no token launches by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
The source data provided mixes two distinct tokens (Makina and Reya) under a single event group labeled 'Makina FDV above ___ one day after launch?'. Polymarket markets reference Makina; Predict platform data references Reya with different FDV thresholds. This creates a data integrity failure that makes cross-platform comparison and unified resolution impossible.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are fungible or arbitrageable. Contact PredictionHero support to clarify whether Predict data was incorrectly mapped to the Makina group, or whether the event group definition should be split. Verify token identities (contract addresses, launch announcements) before trading any position.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Makina token FDV thresholds: $80M, $100M, $200M, $300M. Resolution at 4:00 PM ET one day after launch using most liquid price source. No launch by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET = No.Predict:
Reya token FDV thresholds: $150M, $200M, $300M, $400M, $1B. Identical mechanics (4:00 PM ET one day after launch, most liquid price source) but references Reya (https://x.com/reya_xyz), not Makina. No launch by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET = No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect traders' probabilistic bets on Makina's FDV reaching the threshold within 24 hours of launch, independent of current spot price. These odds incorporate launch timing uncertainty, initial liquidity conditions, and expected volatility. Spot price expectations are typically more reactive to near-term sentiment, while prediction markets embed longer-term structural assumptions about token distribution and early trading dynamics. The gap between the two signals whether markets expect post-launch momentum or mean reversion.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, liquidity depths, and fee structures. Polymarket shows while Predict reflects , a spread of percentage points. Differences arise from varying user bases, capital availability, and risk tolerance. Polymarket may have deeper retail participation, while Predict could skew institutional. Latency in cross-platform arbitrage and differing market-maker strategies also explain pricing divergence, creating opportunities for alert traders to exploit temporary mispricings.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether Makina's fully diluted valuation crosses the specified threshold exactly one day after its official launch timestamp. The outcome is determined by verified FDV data at that precise moment, sourced from on-chain metrics and market data providers. Early resolution is possible if launch timing is confirmed and FDV snapshots become available sooner. Traders should monitor official Makina announcements for exact launch time to calculate the resolution window accurately.
Key catalysts include official launch date announcements, token allocation details, and exchange listing confirmations. Pre-launch hype, influencer endorsements, and ecosystem partnerships can drive early demand expectations. Macro crypto sentiment, Bitcoin and Ethereum price action, and competing token launches also influence perceived FDV trajectories. Regulatory news affecting the broader market, changes to Makina's tokenomics, or delays to the launch schedule could shift odds materially. Real-time social volume and developer activity updates serve as leading indicators of post-launch momentum.
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