TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the HYPE token price moves up or down on April 3, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle comparison (open vs. close) from Binance HYPE/USDT futures, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI index with 50 discrete price thresholds. The markets measure directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources, methodologies, and granularity.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Binance HYPE/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI), different calculation methods (candle open/close vs. 60-second average), and different resolution granularity (binary vs. 50 price tiers). This creates potential for conflicting outcomes if the two sources diverge.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket Up and Kalshi Yes outcomes will align. Binance and CF Benchmarks may report different prices at 5 PM ET due to exchange-specific spreads and index composition. Monitor both sources in real-time. If you are hedging across platforms, account for a 1-3% price discrepancy between Binance spot/futures and the CF index.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 3, 2026. Data source: Binance futures HYPEUSDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
50 discrete Yes/No markets based on CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI index. Each market resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold ($12.9999 through $61.9999). Data source: CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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