TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the HYPE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the HYPE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/futures/HYPEUSDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance HYPE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket employ incompatible resolution mechanics tied to different price indices. Kalshi uses 40 tiered absolute-value thresholds against CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI; Polymarket uses directional comparison (close >= open) of Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle. Both settle at 5 PM ET April 26, 2026, but outcomes may diverge.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets. Kalshi's resolution is threshold-based and lacks an explicit No condition if price falls below $20.9999. Polymarket's is directional and exchange-specific (Binance only). Verify which data source (CF Benchmarks vs. Binance) you trust before trading. Arbitrage is not guaranteed.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
40 tiered Yes-only thresholds ranging $20.9999 to $59.9999 against CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second average. No explicit No condition; ambiguous if price < $20.9999. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Directional comparison: Up if Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open; Down otherwise. Single data source (Binance futures). Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the HYPE/USDT 1 hour candle... Otherwise, this market will resolve to Down.'
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