TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5PM ET

Volume:
$15,093

$2,030 to 2,069.99

 - Kalshi

$2,030 to 2,069.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 22, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$2,030 to 2,069.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,993
N/A
N/A
$2,170
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,070 to 2,109.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,729
N/A
N/A
$2,197
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,190 to 2,229.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,391
N/A
N/A
$2,296
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,150 to 2,189.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,103
N/A
N/A
$1,444
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,990 to 2,029.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,033
N/A
N/A
$903
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,110 to 2,149.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$554
N/A
N/A
$262
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,230 to 2,269.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$122
N/A
N/A
$120
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,389.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,910 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,950 to 1,989.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,270 to 2,309.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,830 to 1,869.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,310 to 2,349.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,670 to 1,709.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,710 to 1,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,550 to 1,589.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,870 to 1,909.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,790 to 1,829.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,750 to 1,789.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,430 to 1,469.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,470 to 1,509.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,510 to 1,549.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,630 to 1,669.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,590 to 1,629.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,910 to 1,949.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, metrics, and scopes. Polymarket resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second average across 40 discrete price bands. The markets measure different underlying assets and employ incompatible settlement methodologies.Hero tip: These are NOT equivalent bets. Polymarket is a simple directional bet (up vs down) on a single exchange pair. Kalshi is a complex band-matching bet on a different index entirely. Price movements on Binance ETH/USDT may not correlate with ERTI band outcomes. Do not assume arbitrage or hedging between these two markets — they settle on different data sources and will likely produce different outcomes for the same event date.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open versus close price comparison. Market resolves YES (Up) if close >= open, NO (Down) if close < open. Single binary outcome determined by one exchange pair. Key quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized' from Binance ETH/USDT.
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT matched against 40 predefined price bands (below 1390, then 1390-1429.99, 1430-1469.99, etc., up to above 2909.99). Market resolves YES if ERTI average falls within ANY of these bands, NO if it falls outside all bands. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [X-Y]' applied across 40 separate conditions.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.