TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, metrics, and scopes. Polymarket resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second average across 40 discrete price bands. The markets measure different underlying assets and employ incompatible settlement methodologies.Hero Tip:
These are NOT equivalent bets. Polymarket is a simple directional bet (up vs down) on a single exchange pair. Kalshi is a complex band-matching bet on a different index entirely. Price movements on Binance ETH/USDT may not correlate with ERTI band outcomes. Do not assume arbitrage or hedging between these two markets — they settle on different data sources and will likely produce different outcomes for the same event date.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open versus close price comparison. Market resolves YES (Up) if close >= open, NO (Down) if close < open. Single binary outcome determined by one exchange pair. Key quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized' from Binance ETH/USDT.Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT matched against 40 predefined price bands (below 1390, then 1390-1429.99, 1430-1469.99, etc., up to above 2909.99). Market resolves YES if ERTI average falls within ANY of these bands, NO if it falls outside all bands. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [X-Y]' applied across 40 separate conditions.
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