TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, metrics, and logic. Polymarket resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second average within discrete price bands. These are incompatible settlement mechanisms that will produce different outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume the same outcome across platforms. Polymarket's binary up/down logic (close >= open) is incompatible with Kalshi's 40-outcome price-band structure. A price movement that resolves YES on Polymarket may resolve NO on Kalshi if the ERTI average falls in a gap between Kalshi's defined bands. Verify which platform's settlement source and logic matches your trading thesis before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves YES (Up) if Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close price is greater than or equal to open price; resolves NO (Down) otherwise. Uses a single binary comparison on a specific exchange pair. Key quote: 'The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT falls within any of 40 discrete price bands (e.g., 1340-1379.99, 1380-1419.99, etc.), or below 1340, or above 2859.99. Resolves NO if ERTI average falls in any gap between bands. Uses a multi-outcome index-based mechanism with no explicit NO outcome defined. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [price range] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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