TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with 43 distinct price thresholds. These sources measure different underlying values and will produce different outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume positions on Polymarket will correlate with Kalshi outcomes. Polymarket is a binary up/down candle comparison on a single exchange; Kalshi is a multi-threshold index-based settlement. Monitor both Binance ETH/USDT and CF Benchmarks ERTI separately at 5 PM EDT on April 10, 2026. A price move that resolves UP on Polymarket may not trigger any Kalshi threshold, and vice versa.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle comparison. Market resolves YES (Up) if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 10; otherwise NO (Down). Single binary outcome determined by one exchange pair. Key quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with 43 separate price thresholds ranging from 1049.99 to 3009.99. Each threshold is an independent YES/NO market. Resolution uses the simple average of 60 seconds of ERTI data before 5 PM EDT on April 10, 2026. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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