TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 15, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Two platforms offer markets on this outcome, but they use fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies to determine the result.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance DOGE/USDT candle vs CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index) and measurement methodologies (binary open/close comparison vs multi-threshold index average). Additionally, Kalshi's ruleset contains 37 identical Yes-resolution conditions with different thresholds, suggesting a structural defect in market design.Hero Tip:
These are two separate markets with different resolution mechanics. Polymarket resolves on Binance exchange data; Kalshi resolves on a third-party index. Do not assume they will settle to the same outcome. If trading both, treat them as independent bets. Request clarification from Kalshi on whether all 37 threshold conditions are intentional or if the market design contains an error.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down based on Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at March 15, 5 PM ET. Source: Binance official DOGE/USDT pair data. Key quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
Resolves Yes if 60-second average of CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI exceeds any of 37 different thresholds (ranging from 0.0049999 to 0.1899999) at 5 PM EDT on March 15, 2026. All 37 conditions resolve to Yes; no explicit No condition is defined. Key quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' (repeated 37 times with different thresholds)
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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