TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour trading window on April 23, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with 37 redundant yes-resolution thresholds, while Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison. The markets fundamentally measure directional price movement but rely on different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure Dogecoin price movement using different indices (CF Benchmarks RTI vs Binance DOGE/USDT), different aggregation methods (60-second average vs single 1-hour candle open/close), and different resolution logic (absolute threshold levels vs relative directional comparison). These methodological differences create independent settlement paths that may produce opposite outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Kalshi resolves YES if the CF Benchmarks 60-second average exceeds any threshold; Polymarket resolves UP only if Binance close >= open for the 1-hour candle. A sideways or slightly up move on Binance could resolve DOWN while Kalshi resolves YES if the absolute price level is above a threshold. Monitor both data sources independently and understand that arbitrage between these markets carries basis risk.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Uses CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with 37 redundant YES-resolution thresholds ranging from 0.0099999 to 0.1849999 USD. Measures a 60-second average before 5 PM EDT. No explicit NO condition; all thresholds resolve to YES. This is an absolute price-level measurement.Polymarket:
Uses Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle data. Resolves UP if close >= open; resolves DOWN otherwise. Measures relative price change within a single 1-hour candle, not an average. This is a directional (relative) measurement.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.