TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Concrete FDV above $50M one day after launch?
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$20
$50
$100
$500
Trade on Polymarket
At 95¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% | APY: 3% 570 days to resolution
Trade on Predict
At 85.5¢ buys you 117 shares | Odds: 86% Total Payout: $117 | Net Profit: $17 Multiplier: 1.17x | ROI: 17% | APY: 3% 570 days to resolutionIntro
This event group tracks whether Concrete's official token will achieve a fully diluted valuation above $50M within one day of its public launch. Aggregated data from Polymarket and Predict shows a consensus probability of 95.0% for this outcome. Resolution will be determined by the most liquid price source available for Concrete's official token at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. Watch for the official token launch announcement to confirm the exact date and trading venue where FDV will be measured.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Most liquid price source available for Concrete's official token at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launchCore resolution logic:
- Token must be officially launched by Concrete (verified via https://x.com/ConcreteXYZ)
- Token must be actively and publicly tradable at resolution time
- Token must not be a stablecoin, memecoin, LST, or synthetic token
- FDV is calculated as: total token supply multiplied by token price from most liquid source
- Resolution timestamp is exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch date
- Market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold; No if FDV is at or below threshold
- If no token launches by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Multiple token launches: Only the first official token launched by Concrete qualifies. Subsequent tokens or forks do not trigger resolution.
- Illiquid or delisted token: If the token becomes untradable or delisted before 4:00 PM ET on day one, the most recent liquid price from the highest-volume exchange is used.
- Exact threshold match: If FDV equals the threshold exactly (e.g., $200M), market resolves to No because the condition requires FDV to be greater than the threshold, not equal to it.
- Launch timing ambiguity: Launch is defined as when the token becomes actively and publicly tradable. The calendar day following that date determines the 4:00 PM ET resolution window.
- Supply or price data unavailable: Resolution uses the most liquid price source available. If supply data is disputed, official Concrete documentation or blockchain records take precedence.
Timing:
Resolution occurs at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following Concrete's official token launch. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No.Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect traders' probabilistic bets on Concrete's FDV milestone, distinct from spot price forecasts. While spot price expectations focus on the token's trading value at launch, these markets quantify the likelihood of hitting specific FDV targets one day post-launch. The odds incorporate uncertainty around initial demand, liquidity depth, and market sentiment. Comparing the two reveals whether traders expect the token to outperform or underperform relative to its opening valuation, offering insight into whether the market views Concrete's initial pricing as conservative or aggressive.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Polymarket and Predict typically stem from distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and risk appetites on each platform. Polymarket currently shows odds while Predict reflects , a spread of percentage points. Variations arise from different fee structures, market-maker participation, regional trader concentration, and timing of large orders. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms may persist if traders lack sufficient capital or face friction costs, allowing genuine disagreement about Concrete's launch-day FDV trajectory to persist across venues.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028, marking the conclusion of the one-day window following Concrete's launch. Resolution hinges on verifying the token's actual fully diluted valuation at that point, measured against the specified FDV threshold. The outcome is binary: either Concrete's FDV exceeds the threshold, or it does not. Traders should monitor official Concrete announcements and on-chain data as the launch date approaches to understand how FDV will be calculated and reported for settlement purposes.
Key catalysts include Concrete's official launch date confirmation, tokenomics and supply details, exchange listing announcements, and early community sentiment. Major developments in the broader crypto market, regulatory news affecting token launches, or competitive announcements from rival projects could shift trader conviction. Pre-launch hype, influencer endorsements, and partnerships disclosed before or immediately after launch will influence initial demand and valuation. Real-time trading volume and price action on day one will be the ultimate driver, as market participants react to actual liquidity conditions and buyer interest relative to initial expectations.
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