TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Citrea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Citrea will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Citrea (https://x.com/citrea_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Predict reflect traders' consensus on Citrea's FDV trajectory immediately after launch. These odds can diverge from analyst price targets or social media sentiment because markets price in real money and continuous updating. Spot price expectations from traditional research or community polls may lag behind market-implied probabilities, which adjust instantly to new information. The gap between market odds and external forecasts often signals where informed traders see mispricing or where consensus is shifting fastest.
On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary outcome: Citrea's FDV either exceeds the threshold one day after launch or it does not. Traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, with the price of each share reflecting its implied probability. The current top outcome shows implied probability. Pricing adjusts dynamically as new trades execute, incorporating expectations about Citrea's token distribution, market conditions at launch, and comparable token valuations. Liquidity and volume on Polymarket determine how efficiently prices respond to new information.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028. Resolution depends on whether Citrea's fully diluted valuation meets or exceeds the specified threshold exactly one day after its official launch. The timing and measurement methodology are critical; the outcome is determined by verifiable FDV data at the designated resolution point. Traders should monitor Citrea's launch announcement and official tokenomics to understand how FDV will be calculated and reported for settlement purposes.
Key catalysts include Citrea's official launch date announcement, token supply and distribution details, and early market reception. Major developments in the broader crypto market, Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements, and competing layer-two or sidechain launches can shift sentiment around Citrea's valuation. Community engagement, developer activity, and partnerships announced before launch will influence trader expectations. Macroeconomic conditions and regulatory news affecting crypto adoption may also impact how aggressively the market prices Citrea's post-launch FDV. Real-time price discovery on decentralized exchanges immediately after launch will be the ultimate driver.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.