TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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BNB Up or Down - April 4, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

BNB Up or Down - April 4, 5PM ET

Volume:
$412

BNB Up or Down - April 4, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

BNB Up or Down - April 4, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 5, 2026

Closed: Apr 4, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - April 4, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$485 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$490 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$495 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$500 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$505 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$510 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$515 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$520 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$525 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$530 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$535 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$540 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$545 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$550 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$555 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$560 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$565 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$570 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$575 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$580 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$585 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$590 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$595 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$600 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether BNB price moves up or down at a specific moment (April 4, 2026, 5 PM ET). Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle open/close comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI index with multiple price thresholds. The markets measure the same directional outcome but rely on fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks index), different time windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and different resolution logic (binary direction vs. 40 independent price thresholds). This creates potential for conflicting outcomes even if BNB price moves in the same direction on both platforms.Hero tip: Do not assume Polymarket UP correlates with Kalshi YES outcomes. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BNB/USDT candle open/close; Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks index levels. Price discrepancies between Binance spot and the CF index, or timing misalignment in the final 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT, can cause divergent resolutions. Treat these as separate markets with separate data risks.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary UP/DOWN resolution based on 1-hour BNB/USDT candle on Binance. Resolves UP if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at April 4, 5 PM ET. Single outcome per market. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 40 independent binary markets, each testing whether the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold ($484.99 to $679.99). Each threshold is a separate YES/NO outcome. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.