TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB price moves up or down at a specific moment (April 4, 2026, 5 PM ET). Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle open/close comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI index with multiple price thresholds. The markets measure the same directional outcome but rely on fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks index), different time windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and different resolution logic (binary direction vs. 40 independent price thresholds). This creates potential for conflicting outcomes even if BNB price moves in the same direction on both platforms.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket UP correlates with Kalshi YES outcomes. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BNB/USDT candle open/close; Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks index levels. Price discrepancies between Binance spot and the CF index, or timing misalignment in the final 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT, can cause divergent resolutions. Treat these as separate markets with separate data risks.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary UP/DOWN resolution based on 1-hour BNB/USDT candle on Binance. Resolves UP if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at April 4, 5 PM ET. Single outcome per market. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
40 independent binary markets, each testing whether the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold ($484.99 to $679.99). Each threshold is a separate YES/NO outcome. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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