TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This event group tracks BNB/USDT price movement on April 1, 2026 at 5 PM ET across two platforms using fundamentally different measurement methodologies. Kalshi uses a 60-second CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI average across 40 discrete price bands, while Polymarket uses a simple open-vs-close comparison on Binance's 1-hour candle. The markets measure different things: Kalshi measures absolute price level at a specific moment, while Polymarket measures directional movement within a 1-hour window.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution sources and logic. Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI (a specific cryptocurrency index) with 40 discrete price bands that collectively cover nearly the entire price spectrum, while Polymarket resolves based on Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle open vs. close comparison. These are incompatible settlement mechanisms that will produce different outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets move together. A BNB price movement that triggers a YES on Kalshi (e.g., price lands in one of its 40 bands) may resolve to DOWN on Polymarket if the hourly candle close is below the open. Conversely, Polymarket's UP outcome (close >= open) does not guarantee Kalshi's YES. Treat them as separate bets on different metrics.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI falls within one of 40 predefined price bands (below $510, $510–$514.99, $515–$519.99, $520–$524.99, and so on through above $699.99). The resolution source is 'CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI' and the settlement value is a 60-second average computed before 5 PM EDT on April 1, 2026.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves UP if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1-hour candle beginning at the specified time on April 1, 2026, and DOWN otherwise. The resolution source is 'Binance BNB/USDT pair' and the settlement value is the hourly candle's open and close prices from that exchange.
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