TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, thresholds, and measurement methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average at a specific price threshold. These are incompatible settlement bases that will produce different outcomes for the same time period.Hero Tip:
Do not assume the same Bitcoin price movement will resolve identically across platforms. Polymarket measures directional movement (up vs down from open to close on Binance 1H candle), while Kalshi measures absolute price levels against 60 discrete thresholds using a different index. A Bitcoin price that moves up on Polymarket could fail to cross a Kalshi threshold, or vice versa. Verify which platform's resolution source and logic matches your trading intent before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Resolves YES (Up) if BTC/USDT close price is greater than or equal to open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 4, using Binance as the exclusive source. "The close 'C' and open 'O' displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant '1H' candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized."Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT exceeds one of 60 discrete price thresholds (ranging from 56,499.99 to 72,749.99). Each threshold is a separate binary outcome. "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
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