TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Arcium FDV above $50M one day after launch?
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$20
$50
$100
$500
Trade on Polymarket
At 94¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 4% 570 days to resolution
Trade on Predict
At 87¢ buys you 115 shares | Odds: 87% Total Payout: $115 | Net Profit: $15 Multiplier: 1.15x | ROI: 15% | APY: 4% 570 days to resolutionIntro
This market tracks whether Arcium's official token will reach a fully diluted valuation of $50 million or higher at 4:00 PM ET on the day following its public launch. Across Polymarket and Predict, the aggregated consensus stands at 88.0% for this outcome. Resolution will be determined by the most liquid price source available for Arcium's official token, verified against the official Arcium Twitter account for authenticity. Watch for Arcium's official launch announcement on their verified social channels, as the 4:00 PM ET snapshot on the following day will serve as the settlement point.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Most liquid price source available for Arcium's official token at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch; verified against official Arcium Twitter account (https://x.com/Arcium) for token authenticity.Core resolution logic:
- FDV = total token supply multiplied by token price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
- Only official tokens launched by Arcium qualify; stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs, and synthetic tokens are excluded
- Token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a valid launch
- Resolution uses the most liquid price source available at the specified timestamp
- Each market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds its specified threshold, No otherwise
- If no token launches by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in the group resolve to No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Multiple token launches: If Arcium launches multiple tokens, only the first official token launch qualifies for resolution. Subsequent tokens do not trigger new resolution events.
- Illiquid or delisted token: If the token becomes illiquid or is delisted before 4:00 PM ET on day one, the most recent liquid price source is used. If no liquid price exists, the market cannot resolve and may be cancelled.
- Exact threshold match: Markets resolve Yes only if FDV is strictly greater than the specified threshold. FDV equal to the threshold resolves to No.
- Price volatility: Intraday volatility does not affect resolution; only the price at exactly 4:00 PM ET on day one matters.
- Launch timing ambiguity: Launch is defined as when the token becomes actively and publicly tradable. The calendar day following this event determines the 4:00 PM ET resolution timestamp.
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following Arcium's official token launch. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No on that deadline.Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect trader expectations of Arcium's FDV one day post-launch, independent of current spot prices or pre-launch valuations. These odds incorporate demand forecasts, tokenomics, and perceived market appetite. Unlike spot prices, which respond to live trading, prediction odds are forward-looking consensus bets on a specific future event. The aggregated odds across Polymarket and Predict show whether the market expects Arcium to achieve the FDV threshold, offering a probabilistic view distinct from traditional price discovery mechanisms.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences between Polymarket and Predict arise from distinct user bases, liquidity depths, and fee structures. Polymarket currently shows odds while Predict reflects , a spread of percentage points. Variations stem from different trader demographics, risk appetites, and information access. Lower liquidity on one platform can amplify volatility, while arbitrage opportunities may persist if transaction costs exceed the spread. Monitoring both venues reveals where smart money concentrates and highlights potential mispricings.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028. Resolution hinges on whether Arcium's fully diluted valuation meets or exceeds the specified threshold exactly one day after the token launch event. The outcome is determined by verifiable on-chain data, official project announcements, and market capitalization calculations at the designated resolution timestamp. Traders should monitor official Arcium communications and blockchain metrics leading up to this date to understand the precise launch timing and resulting FDV snapshot.
Key catalysts include Arcium's official launch announcement and exact timing, which directly determines the one-day FDV measurement window. Major exchange listings or delistings on launch day will impact trading volume and price discovery. Regulatory developments affecting the broader crypto market or Arcium specifically could shift sentiment. Competitor announcements or shifts in developer activity may influence perceived value. Social media momentum, influencer endorsements, and macro crypto market conditions closer to launch will all influence trader expectations and move odds on both Polymarket and Predict.
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