TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
65%
chance
Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029?
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Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 65¢ buys you 154 shares | Odds: 65% Total Payout: $154 | Net Profit: $54 Multiplier: 1.54x | ROI: 54% | APY: 18% 956 days to resolutionTrade on Polymarket
At 68¢ buys you 147 shares | Odds: 68% Total Payout: $147 | Net Profit: $47 Multiplier: 1.47x | ROI: 47% | APY: 18% 955 days to resolutionDescription
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this event is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability that President Trump will face impeachment before Jan 20, 2029. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price directly representing the market's implied probability. Higher trading activity and tighter bid-ask spreads indicate stronger consensus, while price swings signal shifting expectations around political developments, investigations, or legislative momentum that could trigger or prevent impeachment proceedings.
The market resolves on Jan 20, 2029, marking the end of Trump's current term. Resolution is determined by whether an official impeachment vote occurs in the House of Representatives before that deadline. The outcome is binary: either impeachment proceedings are formally initiated and voted upon, or they do not occur. Traders should monitor congressional activity, committee investigations, and political developments that could trigger or forestall impeachment action during the remaining term.
Major catalysts include criminal indictments or convictions affecting Trump directly, significant legislative investigations by House committees, shifts in congressional party control or leadership, major policy controversies, or public statements from key Republican figures signaling openness to impeachment. International incidents, economic crises, or revelations from ongoing inquiries could also shift trader expectations. Additionally, changes in House procedural rules, leadership elections, or coordinated political movements could alter the perceived likelihood of impeachment proceedings before the term concludes.
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