TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be Prime Minister of Israel at any point through the end of 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—Netanyahu out by end of 2026—stands at 56.5%, while Netanyahu out by June 30 is at 4.3%. Resolution will be based on official information from Netanyahu and the Israeli government, or credible reporting consensus if needed. Watch for any formal announcement of resignation or removal before December 31, 2026, which would immediately trigger a Yes resolution regardless of the effective date.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling because markets aggregate real-money bets and forward-looking expectations, whereas polls measure current sentiment at a single point in time. Markets incorporate private information, geopolitical developments, and coalition dynamics that polls may lag. The Netanyahu out by...? market reflects traders' probabilistic estimates of his departure across specific date windows, offering a complementary signal to public opinion surveys and analyst forecasts about Israeli political stability.
Netanyahu out by... is priced on Polymarket as a set of mutually exclusive outcome contracts, each representing a specific exit date window. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The leading outcome currently reflects market conviction about the most likely timeframe for Netanyahu's departure. Prices range from 0 to 1 and represent the probability traders assign to each scenario. Total volume of $122,020,252 demonstrates substantial interest in this political event, with prices updating continuously as new information and trades flow into the market.
The Netanyahu out by... market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Resolution depends on whether Netanyahu remains in office through each specified date threshold or departs earlier. Outcomes are determined by official Israeli government records and credible news sources confirming his departure from the Prime Minister role. Each contract settles independently based on whether the corresponding date window is met, allowing traders to hedge or speculate on different timeframes for his political exit.
Key catalysts for Netanyahu out by... include Israeli coalition stability, legal proceedings against Netanyahu, election results, security developments, and international pressure. Domestic political crises, coalition partner defections, or parliamentary votes of no confidence could accelerate his departure. Conversely, strengthened coalition support or legal victories might extend his tenure. Major geopolitical events in the Middle East, U.S. policy shifts, or changes in public opinion could shift market expectations about the timeline for his exit, driving significant price movements across outcome contracts.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.