TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Who will win the next Peruvian presidential election?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 94.1¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 110% 30 days to resolution
Trade on Polymarket
At 94¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 110%
Trade on Predict
At 95.9¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 110%Intro
This market tracks which candidate will win Peru's next presidential election, scheduled for April 12, 2026, including any potential second-round runoff. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict shows the leading outcome at 90.6%. Resolution will be determined by official results from Peru's National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) and National Jury of Elections (JNE). Watch for the April 12, 2026 general election date, when Peru's voters will cast their ballots and initial results begin to emerge.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official results as reported by Peru's National Jury of Elections (JNE, portal.jne.gob.pe/portal) and National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE, onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/)Core resolution logic:
- The winner is the candidate who wins the 2026 Peruvian presidential election held on April 12, 2026
- Resolution includes any potential second round runoff election
- Resolution is based on official results from JNE and ONPE, with JNE as the final authority in case of ambiguity
- Each named candidate market (e.g., Keiko Fujimori, Rafael López Aliaga) resolves YES if that candidate wins, NO otherwise
- Generic placeholder candidates (e.g., Candidate A, Candidate B) resolve YES only if the unnamed winner matches that placeholder
- An "Other" or "another candidate" outcome resolves YES if the winner is not among the explicitly listed named candidates
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Deadline for Result Certainty: If official results are not definitively known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to "Other" or "another candidate"
- Runoff Elections: All platforms explicitly include any second round runoff in the resolution scope; the winner of the runoff (if held) is the election winner
- Ambiguity Resolution: In case of conflicting reports, resolution is based solely on official JNE results, not consensus reporting
- Unnamed Placeholder Candidates: Polymarket and Predict include generic candidates (A through Z); these resolve YES only if the actual winner is not a named candidate and matches the placeholder's intended scope
- Election Cancellation or Postponement: If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond the October 31, 2026 deadline, markets resolve to "Other"
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the April 12, 2026 election date, with a hard deadline of October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for result certainty. Markets resolve based on official JNE/ONPE announcements, typically within days of the election.Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs and financial incentives, often diverging from traditional polling. Markets incorporate real-time information, late-breaking news, and insider knowledge faster than polls, which are typically conducted weeks apart. For Peru's 2026 presidential race, market prices on Kalshi and Polymarket may lead or lag polling averages depending on campaign momentum, economic conditions, and political developments. Comparing both sources provides a fuller picture of candidate viability.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket serve different trader bases, liquidity pools, and fee structures, creating natural price gaps. Kalshi currently shows for the leading candidate, while Polymarket reflects , a spread of percentage points. Differences arise from varying user demographics, regulatory constraints, order-book depth, and timing of large trades. Arbitrage opportunities may persist if one platform receives news before the other or if risk appetite differs between exchanges.
The market resolves on Jul 10, 2026, following Peru's official presidential election. Resolution is determined by the candidate declared winner by Peru's electoral authority. Markets remain open for trading until the resolution date, allowing participants to adjust positions as campaigns progress and new developments emerge. Early voting, polling shifts, and political events in the weeks leading up to election day will influence final odds.
Key catalysts include campaign announcements, debate performances, economic data releases, and shifts in voter sentiment. Scandals, coalition changes, or endorsements from major political figures can trigger sharp repricing. International developments affecting Peru's economy or regional stability may also influence trader expectations. Polling releases, primary results, and turnout indicators closer to Jul 10, 2026 typically drive the largest market moves. Real-time news flow and social media sentiment can accelerate odds changes across both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.