TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks whether António José Seguro will win the highest vote share in all 20 of Portugal's electoral districts (excluding overseas/foreign votes) in the second round of the 2026 presidential election scheduled for February 8, 2026. Resolution depends on official results from the Portuguese Ministry of Internal Administration, with a 50-50 fallback if results are unknown by December 31, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms require Seguro to achieve the highest vote count in all 20 specified Portuguese electoral districts in the February 8, 2026 second round, with resolution based on official government results.
Primary resolution logic:
Portuguese Ministry of Internal Administration (Ministério da Administração Interna) official results website; consensus of credible reporting as secondary sourceCore resolution logic:
- Seguro must receive the highest number of valid votes in each of the 20 specified districts: Aveiro, Azores, Beja, Braga, Bragança, Castelo Branco, Coimbra, Évora, Faro, Guarda, Leiria, Lisbon, Madeira, Portalegre, Porto, Santarém, Setúbal, Viana do Castelo, Vila Real, and Viseu
- Overseas and foreign (estrangeiro) results are excluded from consideration
- Resolution is YES only if Seguro wins the plurality in ALL 20 districts; any district loss results in NO
- Resolution is based on official Portuguese government results; credible reporting consensus is used for verification
- If results are unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to 50-50 (Polymarket explicit; Kalshi presumed similar)
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Tie in any district: A tie (equal votes between Seguro and another candidate) in any single district would mean Seguro did not receive the highest number of votes, triggering a NO resolution
- Election postponement or cancellation: If the February 8, 2026 second round does not occur or is cancelled, and no results are available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 50-50
- Ambiguous official results: In case of ambiguity in reporting, resolution is determined solely by official Portuguese government results, not by media or preliminary counts
- Overseas/foreign district results: Results from overseas or foreign (estrangeiro) voting locations are explicitly excluded and do not affect the resolution
Timing:
Resolution occurs on or after February 8, 2026 (election date) once official results are published by the Portuguese Ministry of Internal Administration. If results are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 50-50.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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