TOTAL VOLUME:
$62b
24H VOL:
$247,368,872
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,147,874
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,359,628,193
584,096
Markets across
14,555
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,195
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?
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$20
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Intro
This market tracks whether any individual will accumulate a net worth exceeding one trillion dollars before the end of the decade. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that Elon Musk becomes the world's first trillionaire—stands at 94.0%, while Jeff Bezos reaching that milestone is priced at 3.0%. Resolution will be determined by whether Warren Buffett achieves trillionaire status before January 1, 2030, according to Kalshi's official resolution criteria. The outcome will be settled once the calendar reaches January 1, 2030, or when any individual's verified net worth crosses the trillion-dollar threshold, whichever occurs first.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While financial analysts may rely on historical wealth-accumulation models and sector trends, prediction markets incorporate live information, breaking news, and collective intelligence from thousands of participants. For the trillionaire race, market odds tend to weight recent business performance, asset valuations, and market sentiment more dynamically than static analyst reports. Comparing the two reveals where the crowd sees opportunities or risks that traditional forecasters may have underweighted or overlooked.
On Kalshi, the Who will be the world's first trillionaire event is priced as a set of binary outcome contracts, each representing a candidate's chance of reaching trillionaire status first. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome, Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?, is currently trading at probability. Each contract trades between 0 and 100 cents, where the price directly reflects the market's estimated likelihood. As new information emerges—earnings reports, regulatory changes, wealth fluctuations—traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down to reflect shifting conviction about each candidate's path to a trillion dollars.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2030. Resolution is determined by which individual achieves a net worth of one trillion dollars first, as verified by credible financial sources and market documentation. The outcome is binary: one candidate will be confirmed as the world's first trillionaire, and that contract will settle at 100 cents while all other candidates' contracts settle at zero. Until that moment, traders can continue buying and selling shares based on their assessment of each candidate's wealth trajectory and the likelihood they cross the trillion-dollar threshold before the deadline.
Major wealth catalysts include stock market rallies or crashes affecting billionaires' equity holdings, cryptocurrency price swings impacting crypto-rich individuals, and M&A or IPO announcements that reshape net worth overnight. Business performance—earnings beats, product launches, or strategic pivots—can accelerate or derail wealth accumulation. Regulatory actions, tax policy changes, and geopolitical events also influence asset valuations. Personal events like acquisitions, divestitures, or inheritance can shift the race dynamics. Real estate and commodity price movements matter too. Any announcement affecting a leading candidate's core holdings or business prospects will likely trigger immediate trading activity and odds shifts on Kalshi.
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