May Inflation US - Annual

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Core resolution logic:

• Resolution value is the 12-month year-over-year CPI inflation rate reported in the official BLS CPI news release for May 2026, stated to one decimal place
• Kalshi markets resolve Yes if the reported inflation rate matches any of 26 specified outcomes (2.0%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.8%, 2.9%, 3.0%, 3.1%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%)
• Polymarket and Limitless offer binary markets on specific inflation levels (e.g., 3.5%, 4.0%) and ranges (e.g., 4.4% or more, 3.3% or less)
• If BLS does not release on June 10, 2026, markets remain open until the next scheduled CPI report release time
• If no data is released by the next scheduled CPI report date, resolution uses the most recent previous month with available data

Edge cases & Clarifications:

• BLS Release Delay: If the June 10, 2026 release is postponed, all platforms defer resolution to the next scheduled CPI report date (per BLS calendar). Markets do not resolve until official data is published.
• Rounding and Precision: BLS reports inflation to one decimal place. Markets resolve based on this official precision; no rounding beyond the BLS-reported figure is applied.
• Seasonal Adjustment: All platforms explicitly reference the non-seasonally adjusted CPI figure for the 12-month period ending May 2026, as reported by BLS.
• Kalshi Coverage Gap: Kalshi's 26 Yes-resolution outcomes cover 2.0% to 4.5% in 0.1% increments. Any reported inflation outside this range (e.g., 1.9% or 4.6%) would resolve to No on Kalshi; however, Polymarket and Limitless do not explicitly exclude such outcomes, creating a theoretical edge case if inflation falls outside Kalshi's range.