TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Anthropic
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Latest in Science and Technology
Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks which company will own the highest-ranked AI model according to the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability that Anthropic will have the best AI model at the end of June 2026 stands at 99.1%. Resolution will be determined by checking the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard ranking on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, with ties broken first by Arena score and then alphabetically by company name. Watch the leaderboard standings as June 30, 2026 approaches to see if any model gains sufficient ground to challenge Anthropic's commanding lead.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket defines two distinct resolution metrics (Rank vs. Arena Score) across different market descriptions within the same event group, while Kalshi uses undefined 'top-ranked' language. Tiebreaker rules and source interpretation differ materially.Hero tip: Rank and Arena Score may not align on June 30, 2026. Polymarket's Microsoft market (rank-first) could resolve differently from Polymarket's Company G market (score-first). Kalshi's ambiguous 'top-ranked' language creates settlement risk. Request metric clarification from both platforms immediately and monitor the Chatbot Arena leaderboard structure as the event date approaches.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket (Microsoft/Standard Markets): Resolves by Leaderboard Rank (primary metric), then Arena Score (granular values), then alphabetical order of company names. Source: https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off, checked June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Quote: 'Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market's check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score.'
- Polymarket (Company G Market): Resolves by Arena Score (primary metric), then alphabetical order of company names. Source: https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off, checked June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Quote: 'Results from the Arena Score section on the Leaderboard tab will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score, resolution will be based on whichever company's name comes first in alphabetical order.'
- Kalshi: Resolves if a specified company 'has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 30, 2026.' No metric definition (rank vs. score), no tiebreaker rules, no explicit source URL provided. Quote: 'If [Company] has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' Covers 6 companies: OpenAI, Meta, Alibaba, xAI, Anthropic, Google.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by identifying which company's large language model holds the top rank on June 30, 2026. When models are tied in rank, the model with the highest Arena Score takes precedence. If Arena Scores are also tied, the model receiving the most votes wins. If votes are tied, the earlier-released model is ranked higher. Each company (Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Meta, and Alibaba) has one designated model, and exactly one will resolve to Yes based on which achieves the top ranking.
Frequently asked questions
Major catalysts include new model releases from leading AI labs, published benchmark results comparing reasoning and coding ability, regulatory announcements affecting AI development, significant hiring or partnership news, and real-world deployment success stories. Breakthroughs in reasoning, multimodal understanding, or specialized domains could shift trader conviction. Conversely, safety incidents, performance regressions, or competitive leapfrogs by rivals may trigger sharp repricing. Quarterly earnings calls and AI conference announcements typically drive volatility in this market.
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