TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Description
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket Market 1 uses Leaderboard Rank as the primary resolution metric, while Polymarket Market 2, Predict, and Kalshi use Arena Score as the primary metric. These are distinct data points on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard and may produce different winners.Hero Tip:
Identify which metric your specific market uses. Polymarket Market 1 (Google, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meta, Other, and placeholder companies A-M) resolves by Rank. Polymarket Market 2, all Predict markets, and all Kalshi markets resolve by Score. If you hold positions across both metric types, monitor whether the #1 ranked model matches the highest-scoring model as of May 31, 2026.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket Market 1 (Rank-Based): Resolves by Rank column under Text Arena | Overall, with Arena score as tiebreaker and alphabetical order as final tiebreaker. Key Quote: 'Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market's check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score.'
- Polymarket Market 2 / Predict / Kalshi (Score-Based): Resolves by Arena Score column under Text Arena | Overall, with alphabetical order as tiebreaker. Key Quote: 'Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market's check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker.'
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