TOTAL VOLUME:

$148.4b

24H VOL:

$209,734,046

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,817,056,367

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,865,708,956

470,731

Markets across

35,423

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,810

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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AI bubble burst by...?
polymarket

AI bubble burst by...?

Nov 19, 2025, 7:24 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$3,122,247
Volume 24h:
$2,540
54%
Liquidity:
$54,919
10%
Open interest:
$126,609N/A

June 30, 2027

 - Polymarket

June 30, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?

23%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 24¢ buys you 417 shares | Odds: 23% Total Payout: $417 | Net Profit: $317 Multiplier: 4.17x | ROI: 317% High Projected APY: 710% 249 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
23%
2%
Yes 24¢No 78¢
2¢
$12,911
$37,627
2%
41%
N/A
8mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

December 31, 2026

Trade
10%
Yes 9.7¢No 90.6¢
0.3¢
$42,008
$2,496,625
0.07%
2%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

March 31, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$385,004
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

December 31, 2025

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$202,991
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks whether a significant downturn occurs in the AI industry by June 30, 2027. Currently, Polymarket gives an 18.5% probability to the AI bubble bursting by that date, with a 6.2% probability assigned to a burst occurring in 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Silicon Data website, specifically https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. Traders should watch the performance of key AI companies leading up to the resolution date of July 1, 2027, as this date marks the end of the betting period and will determine if a downturn has been established according to the market’s rules.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. For clarity, ‘within 90 days of this market’s specified timeframe’ means that three qualifying events must occur within a single 90-day window that ends no later than the market’s final resolution deadline. For example, with a December 31, 2026 deadline, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on February 5, and Event C on March 3 of 2026, this would qualify because all three fall within one 90-day span. By contrast, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on April 20, and Event C on November 1 of 2026, they would not qualify because they do not occur within the same 90-day window. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI bubble burst market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $2,540 and the total volume traded to date is $3,122,247. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how traders are pricing the probability of an AI bubble bursting by the resolution date. This allows users to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to this specific event.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While many financial analysts debate the timing and severity of a potential AI correction, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real capital. Currently, the market's implied probability differs from many traditional analyst reports, which generally predict continued growth in the short to medium term. This difference highlights the potential for prediction markets to offer a unique perspective, reflecting a broader range of factors and potential risks.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of an AI bubble bursting. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand, influenced by news events, research publications, and overall market sentiment regarding the future of artificial intelligence. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on a widely accepted determination of whether a significant and sustained downturn in the valuation of leading AI companies has occurred, signaling a burst of the AI bubble. The determination will be based on publicly available data and expert consensus, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the market's outcome. This timeframe allows for sufficient observation of market trends and developments in the AI sector.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major regulatory announcements concerning AI development, unexpected setbacks in AI technology, or a substantial correction in the broader stock market could all shift trader sentiment. Negative earnings reports from leading AI companies, coupled with declining investment in the sector, would likely drive prices downward. Conversely, breakthroughs in AI capabilities or positive economic indicators could increase confidence and push prices higher. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market.