TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Closed: Jun 17, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether the average price of gasoline across U.S. cities will exceed 335 cents per gallon during May 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average data for May 2026, as reported by the relevant pricing authority. Watch for the release of May gasoline pricing data on or around June 17, 2026, which will trigger final settlement.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations for May 2026 gasoline prices, which often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While Wall Street economists and energy analysts typically rely on crude oil futures, seasonal demand patterns, and geopolitical risk models, prediction markets incorporate real-time information and trader conviction through direct financial incentives. Comparing Kalshi odds to consensus energy forecasts from major banks and the EIA can reveal whether markets are pricing in more bullish or bearish scenarios than expert consensus. This comparison helps identify whether traders expect gasoline inflation to surprise relative to official projections.
On Kalshi, US gasoline CPI for May is priced as a binary contract: Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for May 2026 be above 390? On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market probability for this outcome stands at , meaning traders collectively assess a relatively low likelihood of gasoline reaching that threshold. Shares trade between 0 and 100 cents, with buyers wagering the outcome occurs and sellers betting against it. The contract resolves based on official CPI data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for May 2026, making it directly tied to real economic data.
The US gasoline CPI for May market on Kalshi resolves on Jun 17, 2026. Resolution is determined by official gasoline CPI data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for May 2026. The specific metric tracked is the Consumer Price Index for gasoline (all types) in the U.S. city average. Once the BLS releases the May CPI report, the contract settles based on whether the gasoline component meets or exceeds the specified threshold. Traders should monitor BLS announcements and economic calendars for the exact release date and time of the May inflation data.
Several factors could shift odds for May gasoline CPI before resolution. Crude oil price movements—driven by OPEC production decisions, geopolitical tensions, and global supply disruptions—directly influence retail gasoline costs. Seasonal demand patterns, refinery maintenance schedules, and inventory reports from the EIA can signal price direction. Dollar strength affects oil pricing in global markets. Economic growth expectations and recession fears alter fuel demand forecasts. Policy announcements regarding fuel taxes, environmental regulations, or strategic petroleum reserve releases may impact prices. Weekly gasoline price data and futures markets provide real-time signals traders use to adjust positions ahead of the May CPI release.
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