TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether average regular gasoline prices across the United States will exceed $4.460 per gallon, with a current probability of 99.0% on the leading outcome. Resolution is determined by AAA's official reported average for regular gas prices on June 1, 2026. Watch AAA's weekly price reports leading up to the June 1, 2026 resolution date to monitor whether prices remain elevated or begin to decline toward the threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money consensus from thousands of traders betting on weekly gas price direction. Analyst forecasts and energy consultancy reports typically focus on longer-term trends and structural factors, while prediction markets price in immediate supply shocks, refinery outages, and geopolitical events. The current market probability of percent for prices above $4.340 incorporates live trading signals that often move faster than traditional analyst revisions, making markets a complementary gauge of near-term price expectations.
On Kalshi, the US gas prices this week contract is structured as a binary outcome: will average national gas prices exceed $4.340 during the week? On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the current midpoint reflecting percent implied probability. Each share pays 100 cents if the outcome resolves yes, or zero if no. The contract attracts both retail traders hedging fuel costs and professionals trading energy volatility, with $141,797 in daily volume showing active price discovery.
Major catalysts include OPEC production announcements, refinery maintenance or outages, hurricane activity affecting Gulf Coast supply, crude oil price swings, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration, and geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions. Seasonal demand shifts, unexpected transportation disruptions, and Federal Reserve policy signals affecting the dollar can also influence pump prices. Traders monitor weather forecasts, shipping delays, and international crude benchmarks like Brent and WTI for clues about directional pressure on the national average before week's end.
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