TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Donald Trump's approval rating moves up or down during a specific week (February 20-27, 2026). Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin's aggregated approval trend, while Kalshi uses VoteHub's time-adjusted average. Both markets measure directional change in approval, but rely on different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct approval rating sources (Silver Bulletin vs VoteHub) with different measurement methodologies and resolution logic (directional change vs threshold breach). Outcomes may diverge despite measuring the same underlying approval metric.Hero Tip:
Polymarket resolves based on directional movement between two dates; Kalshi resolves based on whether approval exceeds a fixed threshold. These are fundamentally different bets. Before trading, confirm which source (Silver Bulletin or VoteHub) you believe is more accurate, and understand that approval could move up on one platform's data while staying below Kalshi's 41.4% threshold on the other platform's data.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Directional change market. Compares Silver Bulletin approval rating on Feb 20 vs Feb 27, 2026. Resolves Up if Feb 27 > Feb 20, Down if Feb 27 < Feb 20, or 50-50 if equal. Uses one decimal precision. Fallback source is RealClearPolitics. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on February 27, 2026, than on February 20, 2026.'Kalshi:
Threshold-based market. Resolves Yes if VoteHub time-adjusted average approval is above 41.4% on Feb 26, 2026 (checked Feb 27 at 10:00 AM ET). Binary outcome tied to fixed threshold, not directional change. Key Quote: 'If the VoteHub time-adjusted average for Donald Trump's approval rating is above 41.4% for Feb 26, 2026 (as checked at Feb 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET), then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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