TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Kalshi structures approval-rating contracts around specific thresholds, allowing traders to bet on whether Trump's approval will fall above or below defined levels by the resolution date. Prices reflect the probability traders assign to each outcome. The market mechanics on Kalshi enable precise positioning on approval ranges, with contract prices fluctuating based on new information, polling releases, and political developments. Traders can enter or exit positions continuously as their conviction changes.
The market resolves on May 15, 2026, at which point the actual approval rating will be measured and compared against the contract terms. Resolution is determined by official approval data available at that time, establishing whether the outcome criteria have been met. Until resolution, traders can adjust positions as new information emerges. The final determination settles all open positions based on the measured approval figure.
Major catalysts include significant policy announcements, economic data releases, geopolitical events, and legislative outcomes. Approval ratings are sensitive to economic conditions, employment figures, and inflation trends. Major news cycles, scandals, or international crises can shift public sentiment rapidly. Election-year dynamics and campaign messaging also influence approval trajectories. Traders monitor approval polls, media coverage, and real-world developments closely. Any substantial shift in these factors could trigger repricing on Kalshi as market participants adjust their expectations for where approval will land by mid-May 2026.
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