TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks Donald Trump's approval rating on April 10, 2026, across multiple prediction platforms. Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin (with RealClearPolitics as fallback) as the resolution source, while Kalshi uses RealClearPolitics directly. The markets are segmented into narrow approval rating bands to allow traders to bet on specific ranges.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different primary resolution sources (Silver Bulletin vs. RealClearPolitics) and different precision/timing methodologies. Silver Bulletin reports one decimal precision and requires finalization, while Kalshi uses a specific 11:00 AM ET snapshot from RealClearPolitics.Hero Tip:
Monitor both Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics approval ratings in early April 2026. If they diverge by more than 0.5 percentage points, expect Polymarket and Kalshi to resolve differently. Kalshi's 11:00 AM ET timestamp creates a fixed resolution moment, while Polymarket's finalization requirement may delay resolution. Traders should hedge across both platforms or choose based on which source they trust more.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Uses Silver Bulletin's green trend line as primary source with one decimal precision (e.g., 42.8%). RealClearPolitics is fallback only if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable. Resolution requires finalization (next data point must be available). Segments approval ratings into six bands: <38.5, 38.5-38.9, 39.0-39.4, 39.5-39.9, 40.0-40.4, 40.5+. Key Quote: 'the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.'Kalshi:
Uses RealClearPolitics approval rating at exactly 11:00 AM ET on April 10, 2026 as sole source. No fallback specified. Segments approval ratings into eight exhaustive bands covering all possible outcomes: <40.2, 40.2-40.4, 40.5-40.7, 40.8-41.0, 41.1-41.3, 41.4-41.6, 41.7-41.9, >41.9. Key Quote: 'at 11:00 AM ET on April 10, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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