TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks the price of a dozen Grade A large eggs in the U.S. during February 2026, as measured by the St. Louis Fed's FRED database (sourced from BLS CPI data). Polymarket offers bracket-based resolution across eight price ranges, while Kalshi offers a binary yes/no on whether prices rise above the prior month.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure different dimensions of egg prices. Polymarket resolves to an absolute price bracket in February using St. Louis Fed FRED data; Kalshi resolves to a binary yes/no on month-over-month price direction. The two markets can theoretically both resolve YES or both resolve NO independently.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve in lockstep. Polymarket resolution depends on the absolute February price level; Kalshi depends on the price change from January to February. Monitor both the February FRED release (scheduled March 11, 2026) and the January baseline price separately. If February data is delayed, Polymarket has a documented fallback; Kalshi's fallback is not specified—clarify with the platform.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Resolves to one of eight mutually exclusive price brackets based on the St. Louis Fed FRED series APU0000708111 for February. Precision: three decimal places. Fallback: if February data is not released by the time March data is scheduled, use the last available month's data. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average lies when the February data point is published by the St. Louis Fed.'Kalshi:
Resolves YES if the price of eggs rises by above 0% in February 2026 (month-over-month change). This is a directional/momentum market, not a price-level market. No fallback or precision specification provided. Key Quote: 'If the price of eggs rises by above 0% in February 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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