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Highest temperature in Seoul on June 9? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Jun 9, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Seoul on June 9 is priced as a set of binary outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The leading outcome currently trades at probability. Traders buy and sell shares in each outcome, with prices reflecting the collective belief about which temperature bracket will be recorded. Liquidity and volume on each contract influence how easily traders can enter or exit positions as new weather data emerges.
The market resolves on Jun 9, 2026, after the highest temperature in Seoul on June 9 has been recorded and verified. The outcome is determined by official temperature data for that date, typically sourced from Seoul's meteorological authority or recognized weather stations. Resolution occurs once the final daily high is confirmed, at which point the correct outcome contract is settled and traders receive payouts based on their positions.
Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric pressure systems over East Asia could significantly move odds. Real-time weather updates, tropical storm activity, or unexpected heat waves in the region may trigger rapid repricing. As June 9 approaches, updated meteorological models and short-term forecasts become more reliable, often causing traders to adjust positions. Additionally, historical temperature records and climate anomalies for early June in Seoul provide context that influences market sentiment and trading behavior.
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