TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?
kalshi

CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?

Volume:
$757,649

Exactly 2.6%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 2.6% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 14, 2026

Closed: Jul 14, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 2.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,436
N/A
N/A
$2,694
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 2.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$301,524
N/A
N/A
$791
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$235,513
N/A
N/A
$2,035
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$99,746
N/A
N/A
$2,311
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,948
N/A
N/A
$501
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,888
N/A
N/A
$3,409
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,772
N/A
N/A
$1,686
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,557
N/A
N/A
$6,211
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,047
N/A
N/A
$5,969
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,401
N/A
N/A
$4,891
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,017
N/A
N/A
$4,431
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,061
N/A
N/A
$2,899
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,837
N/A
N/A
$1,329
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,684
N/A
N/A
$1,191
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,511
N/A
N/A
$656
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$708
N/A
N/A
$403
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks whether core inflation, measured year-over-year and excluding food and energy costs, will reach exactly 2.4% in June 2026. On Kalshi, the probability that core CPI hits precisely 2.4% stands at 53.0%, while the probability it lands at a different level is 34.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official CPI core year-over-year figure released for June 2026. Watch for the CPI data release on July 14, 2026, which will settle this market based on the exact core inflation reading for that month.

Kalshi

This event resolves based on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy, measured as the year-over-year percentage change for the twelve-month period ending June 2026. Resolution uses the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each outcome corresponds to a specific inflation rate within the range of 2.2% to 3.7%. If a federal government shutdown delays data release and impacts the reliability of the source agency, the market's expiration date will be extended to the sooner of the actual data release or six months following the end of the shutdown.

Frequently asked questions

The CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026 dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this key inflation metric. You can monitor the current implied probability of outcomes, historical price movements, and liquidity depth. The market has generated $757,649 in total volume, with $1,480 traded in the last 24 hours. This dashboard helps traders and analysts gauge market sentiment on core inflation expectations heading into mid-2026.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money consensus from active traders and often diverge from traditional analyst surveys. While economists typically issue point forecasts based on models and historical trends, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment and uncertainty. The current market pricing can be compared against Federal Reserve projections, consensus economist estimates from Bloomberg or Reuters, and inflation expectations embedded in Treasury breakeven rates. This comparison reveals whether traders are pricing in more or less inflation risk than the mainstream forecast consensus.

The CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026 market resolves on Jul 14, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official core Consumer Price Index year-over-year inflation rate released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for June 2026. This metric excludes volatile food and energy prices and is a closely watched gauge of underlying inflation trends. The final data release will settle all contracts based on the actual reported figure, ending trading and determining payouts for all market participants.

Several catalysts could shift market pricing for this event. Federal Reserve policy decisions and interest rate changes influence inflation expectations and borrowing costs. Monthly CPI releases leading up to June 2026 provide real inflation data that traders use to adjust forecasts. Oil and commodity price movements, labor market strength, wage growth reports, and supply chain developments all impact core inflation dynamics. Geopolitical events, fiscal policy announcements, and shifts in consumer demand can also move the needle. Each economic data release and Fed communication will likely trigger repricing as traders update their June 2026 inflation outlook.