TOTAL VOLUME:
$62.1b
24H VOL:
$230,299,833
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,147,874
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,357,275,071
584,048
Markets across
14,467
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,185
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether core inflation, measured year-over-year and excluding food and energy costs, will reach exactly 2.4% in June 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that core CPI will be precisely 2.4%—stands at 24.0%, while the second outcome is at 21.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official CPI core year-over-year figure released for June 2026. Watch for the resolution date of July 14, 2026, when the actual June inflation data becomes available and the market settles.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money consensus from active traders and often diverge from traditional analyst surveys. While economists typically issue point forecasts based on models and historical trends, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment and uncertainty. The current market pricing can be compared against Federal Reserve projections, consensus economist estimates from Bloomberg or Reuters, and inflation expectations embedded in Treasury breakeven rates. This comparison reveals whether traders are pricing in more or less inflation risk than the mainstream forecast consensus.
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026 is priced on Kalshi as a binary or range-based contract reflecting market participants' beliefs about the inflation outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100, where the price directly represents the implied probability. The top outcome currently shows implied probability. Price discovery occurs continuously as new information arrives, economic data releases approach, and Fed communications shift expectations. Liquidity and spreads vary with trading volume and proximity to the Jul 14, 2026 resolution date.
The CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026 market resolves on Jul 14, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official core Consumer Price Index year-over-year inflation rate released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for June 2026. This metric excludes volatile food and energy prices and is a closely watched gauge of underlying inflation trends. The final data release will settle all contracts based on the actual reported figure, ending trading and determining payouts for all market participants.
Several catalysts could shift market pricing for this event. Federal Reserve policy decisions and interest rate changes influence inflation expectations and borrowing costs. Monthly CPI releases leading up to June 2026 provide real inflation data that traders use to adjust forecasts. Oil and commodity price movements, labor market strength, wage growth reports, and supply chain developments all impact core inflation dynamics. Geopolitical events, fiscal policy announcements, and shifts in consumer demand can also move the needle. Each economic data release and Fed communication will likely trigger repricing as traders update their June 2026 inflation outlook.
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