TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$222,594,306
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,033,877
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,328,926,524
576,847
Markets across
14,568
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,055
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Core CPI (ex food and energy) MoM - May 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Jun 10, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether the seasonally adjusted Core Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, will rise month-over-month in May 2026. Aggregating predictions from Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability stands at 98.0% for a positive monthly increase. Resolution will be determined by the official Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, scheduled for publication on June 10, 2026. Watch for the BLS release date to confirm whether core inflation showed any month-over-month growth for May.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Market structure divergence: Kalshi uses binary threshold-breach logic (>X%), while Polymarket uses exact-value and range-based logic. Both resolve to the same BLS data source but create different outcome spaces.Hero Tip:
Map Kalshi thresholds to Polymarket outcomes carefully. A single actual CPI value (e.g., 0.3%) will resolve multiple Kalshi markets to YES (all thresholds below 0.3%) but only specific Polymarket markets (0.3% exact, 0.6%+ range). Avoid assuming one-to-one market correspondence across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Eleven binary YES/NO markets, each defined by a threshold breach. Market resolves YES if Core CPI MoM increases by above the specified threshold (0.0%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.8%, 0.9%, 1.0%). Key quote: 'If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for May 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above [threshold]%, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Eleven markets covering exact values and ranges: nine exact-value markets (0.2%, -0.1%, 0.0%, 0.5%, -0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.1%, -0.3% or less), one range market (0.6% or more), and one range market (0.9% or more implied). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report' with 'one decimal point' precision.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and often incorporate forward-looking sentiment beyond traditional economist surveys. While analyst consensus typically clusters around a narrow range, markets like Kalshi and Polymarket price in tail risks and uncertainty. Comparing market odds to consensus forecasts reveals whether traders expect a surprise—either hotter or cooler inflation than economists anticipate. This gap can signal market skepticism about consensus or highlight emerging data signals not yet reflected in formal forecasts.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket may price the same event differently due to variations in contract design, liquidity depth, and trader composition. Kalshi's binary structure on whether Core CPI rises more than 0.3% attracts one set of participants, while Polymarket's outcome on a 0.4% threshold draws another. Differences in fee structures, regulatory treatment, and user demographics can also create temporary price gaps. These spreads typically narrow as the resolution date approaches and arbitrageurs exploit mispricings.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026 following the official release of May 2026 Core CPI data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The outcome is determined by the actual month-over-month percentage change in the Core Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy components. Markets track whether this figure meets or exceeds the specified threshold for each contract. Resolution occurs shortly after the data release, with odds converging to either 0 or 100 percent based on the official figure.
Key drivers include labor market strength, wage growth, and Fed policy expectations, all of which influence pricing pressures. Commodity price movements, supply-chain disruptions, and shelter cost trends directly impact core inflation. Economic data releases—such as employment reports, retail sales, and producer prices—will shift market odds as traders update their inflation forecasts. Fed communications and interest rate decisions also influence expectations. Any surprise in leading indicators or unexpected shifts in consumer demand could trigger significant repricing of Core CPI odds before the May release.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.