TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.7b

24H VOL:

$98,950,588

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,171,226,487

333,737

Markets across

33,115

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,155

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Will any company announce acquisition of Spire Healthcare before Jan 1, 2027?

59%chance
Amount

$

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Spire Healthcare

59%
Yes 59¢No 47¢
N/A
$1,946
0%
2%
$1,114
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Snap

9%
Yes 15¢No 89¢
N/A
$5,311
0%
0.04%
$2,253
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

iRobot

100%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,320
N/A
N/A
N/A
4mo 6d
Yes
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
54.5%
Yes 57.5¢No 44.6¢
Avg: 2.1¢Max:
kalshi

PayPal

46%
9%
Yes 53¢No 54¢
N/A
$16,759
2%
5%
$6,333
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

PayPal

45%
5%
Yes 45¢No 56¢
$1,513
$97,040
0.32%
6%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

PayPal

31%
10%
Yes 40.1¢No 78.2¢
18.3¢
$31,093
$34,915
0.36%
22%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
40.7%
Yes 46¢No 62.7¢
Avg: 8.8¢Max: 18.3¢
kalshi

MGM Resorts

41%
Yes 48¢No 59¢
N/A
$824
0%
1%
$717
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

MGM Resorts

35%
Yes 35¢No 66¢
$1,932
$17,686
0%
13%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

MGM Resorts

30%
Yes 33¢No 72.6¢
5.6¢
$32,392
$35,225
0%
11%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
35.3%
Yes 38.7¢No 65.9¢
Avg: 4.5¢Max:
opinion

Viking Therapeutics

58%
Yes 49.9¢No 82.2¢
32.1¢
N/A
$2,189,500
0%
0.05%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

Viking Therapeutics

22%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
$1,644
$1,701,834
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

Viking Therapeutics

20%
Yes 20¢No 80.1¢
0.1¢
$33,124
$7,102
0%
0.13%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Viking Therapeutics

16%
Yes 17¢No 90¢
N/A
$5,341
0%
2%
$1,730
4mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
29%
Yes 27.2¢No 82.8¢
Avg: 10.1¢Max: 32.1¢
opinion

Snapchat

48%
Yes 23.9¢No 95¢
18.9¢
N/A
$68,527
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

Snapchat

13%
Yes 13¢No 87.6¢
0.6¢
$33,703
$36,641
0.66%
2%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

Snapchat

13%
Yes 12.6¢No 87.5¢
0.1¢
$1,703
$144,430
0.02%
0.4%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
24.7%
Yes 16.5¢No 90¢
Avg: 6.5¢Max: 18.9¢
kalshi

Cordis

22%
Yes 21¢No 86¢
N/A
$9
0%
0%
$9
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

SentinelOne

18%
Yes 17¢No 88¢
N/A
$866
0%
0%
$406
4mo 1w
active
opinion

Lovable

18%
Yes 24.6¢No 99.6¢
24.2¢
N/A
$494,344
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

Lovable

17%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
$1,640
$978,419
0%
0.02%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
predict

Lovable

16%
1%
Yes 16.8¢No 85.9¢
2.7¢
$32,245
$17,282
0.49%
0.55%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
17%
Yes 19.5¢No 89.8¢
Avg: 9.3¢Max: 24.2¢
kalshi

Magnum Ice Cream Company

16%
Yes 23¢No 83¢
N/A
$1,448
0%
0%
$545
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

ElevenLabs

16%
Yes 14¢No 93¢
N/A
$42
0%
0%
$36
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Perplexity AI

24%
Yes 25¢No 77¢
N/A
$4,720
0%
29%
$1,758
4mo 1w
active
polymarket

Perplexity AI

17%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
$1,432
$2,390,229
0%
0.09%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
20.5%
Yes 21¢No 80.5¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max:
Total markets: 25 of 69

Intro

This market tracks whether any company will announce an acquisition of Spire Healthcare before January 1, 2027. The aggregated consensus probability stands at 59.0% across Kalshi, Opinion, Polymarket, and Predict, with resolution based on official announcements from the listed company and/or consensus of credible reporting. Watch for any acquisition announcement before the end of the betting period on January 1, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical resolution logic: 'Yes' if any acquisition agreement is announced before January 1, 2027, regardless of deal completion.Primary resolution logic: Official announcements from the listed company and/or consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to 'Yes' if any entity announces an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026
  • Announcement from official company sources OR consensus of credible reporting qualifies for 'Yes'
  • Actual completion of the acquisition is NOT required for resolution

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Announced but failed deals: Resolve to 'Yes' immediately upon announcement, even if deal later fails to close
  • Subsequent spin-offs: Once resolved 'Yes' for acquisition announcement, any later spin-off or restructuring does not revert resolution
Timing: Resolution occurs when qualifying announcement is made, or December 31, 2026 if no announcement occursOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kalshi

An acquisition resolves to Yes upon public announcement of a definitive, binding agreement between an acquiring company and the target company. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, and agreements in principle do not qualify. The transaction need not close for resolution; regulatory blocking or subsequent cancellation does not affect the outcome. Cross-border acquisitions qualify if a definitive agreement is announced. Internal reorganizations, joint ventures, and minority investments do not qualify unless they involve controlling ownership transfer. Qualifying structures include asset purchases, stock purchases, tender offers, SPAC combinations, and takeover agreements. Transactions involving subsidiaries qualify if they represent majority operations or equity control; transactions limited solely to assets or divisions must represent the majority of operations or equity control.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the corporate acquisition market aggregates data from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of specific companies being acquired before 2027. It displays total volume of $587,223,096 and 24-hour volume of $10,372, letting users see real-time sentiment across venues like Polymarket and Kalshi. This gives a consensus view of market expectations, highlighting which deals are viewed as most probable by collective wisdom.

Prediction market odds on this market often differ from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-time trader sentiment and can price in insider information or market momentum not yet reflected in public reports. Analysts may be more conservative or bound by institutional frameworks, while traders bet on probabilities as they see them. The contrast can provide early warning signals — when odds shift sharply, it may indicate changing expectations about merger activity, even before analysts adjust their views.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could have institutional participants with longer-term outlooks. This can create short-term spreads of 14.5 between the two venues. Additionally, each platform's fee structure and order-book depth influences how prices discover consensus.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Any announced acquisition that meets the market's terms — a definitive agreement between two companies — will settle the market. The key trigger is a public press release, regulatory filing, or reputable news report confirming the deal, at which point all contracts are settled automatically based on the final market state.

Market-moving signals include major economic shifts, regulatory changes affecting merger activity, or high-profile speculation from influential analysts. Corporate earnings calls revealing strategic acquisition plans, geopolitical developments impacting global deal-making, or sudden leadership changes at large firms can also shift probabilities. On platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, rapid bets following such news often cause sharp price swings, reflecting updated expectations about which companies are most likely targets before 2027.