TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.7b
24H VOL:
$98,950,588
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,171,226,487
333,737
Markets across
33,115
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,155
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
$
This market tracks whether any company will announce an acquisition of Spire Healthcare before January 1, 2027. The aggregated consensus probability stands at 59.0% across Kalshi, Opinion, Polymarket, and Predict, with resolution based on official announcements from the listed company and/or consensus of credible reporting. Watch for any acquisition announcement before the end of the betting period on January 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An acquisition resolves to Yes upon public announcement of a definitive, binding agreement between an acquiring company and the target company. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, and agreements in principle do not qualify. The transaction need not close for resolution; regulatory blocking or subsequent cancellation does not affect the outcome. Cross-border acquisitions qualify if a definitive agreement is announced. Internal reorganizations, joint ventures, and minority investments do not qualify unless they involve controlling ownership transfer. Qualifying structures include asset purchases, stock purchases, tender offers, SPAC combinations, and takeover agreements. Transactions involving subsidiaries qualify if they represent majority operations or equity control; transactions limited solely to assets or divisions must represent the majority of operations or equity control.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction market odds on this market often differ from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-time trader sentiment and can price in insider information or market momentum not yet reflected in public reports. Analysts may be more conservative or bound by institutional frameworks, while traders bet on probabilities as they see them. The contrast can provide early warning signals — when odds shift sharply, it may indicate changing expectations about merger activity, even before analysts adjust their views.
On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could have institutional participants with longer-term outlooks. This can create short-term spreads of 14.5 between the two venues. Additionally, each platform's fee structure and order-book depth influences how prices discover consensus.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Any announced acquisition that meets the market's terms — a definitive agreement between two companies — will settle the market. The key trigger is a public press release, regulatory filing, or reputable news report confirming the deal, at which point all contracts are settled automatically based on the final market state.
Market-moving signals include major economic shifts, regulatory changes affecting merger activity, or high-profile speculation from influential analysts. Corporate earnings calls revealing strategic acquisition plans, geopolitical developments impacting global deal-making, or sudden leadership changes at large firms can also shift probabilities. On platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, rapid bets following such news often cause sharp price swings, reflecting updated expectations about which companies are most likely targets before 2027.