TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 20 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 20 2026?

Volume:
$179,175

7,150 to 7,174.9999

 - Kalshi

7,150 to 7,174.9999 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 25, 2026

Closed: Apr 24, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

7,150 to 7,174.9999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,928
N/A
N/A
$11,094
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $710

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,726
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $705

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,125 to 7,149.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40,663
N/A
N/A
$11,150
Settled
No
kalshi

7,100 to 7,124.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,042
N/A
N/A
$7,567
Settled
No
kalshi

7,175 to 7,199.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,008
N/A
N/A
$8,533
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $700

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,969
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $715

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,193
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,075 to 7,099.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,067
N/A
N/A
$5,150
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $690

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,830
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,050 to 7,074.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,517
N/A
N/A
$2,285
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $695

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,501
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,200 to 7,224.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,460
N/A
N/A
$3,855
Settled
No
kalshi

6,674.9999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,742
N/A
N/A
$3,209
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $740

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $720

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,155
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $725

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,018
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,250 to 7,274.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,672
N/A
N/A
$1,574
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $680

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,516
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $745

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,486
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $730

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,225 to 7,249.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,089
N/A
N/A
$1,438
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $685

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,000 to 7,024.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,334
N/A
N/A
$1,159
Settled
No
kalshi

6,975 to 6,999.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,255
N/A
N/A
$1,083
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 44

Description

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 20 2026?

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket measures intraweek price extremes (HIGH/LOW during week of April 20, 2026) using 1-minute candles, while Kalshi measures a single end-of-day settlement value (S&P 500 index close on April 24, 2026). These are fundamentally different resolution methodologies: one captures volatility across the week, the other captures a point-in-time closing price.Hero tip: If you trade Polymarket, you are betting on whether SPY touches specific price levels at any point during the week—volatility and intraday swings matter. If you trade Kalshi, you are betting on where the S&P 500 index closes on Friday, April 24—only the final settlement value matters. A market can resolve YES on Polymarket (price touched) but NO on Kalshi (index closed elsewhere), or vice versa.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle HIGH or LOW reaches the target price during regular trading hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET) any day during the week of April 20, 2026. Uses Pyth data with split-adjusted prices. Example: HIGH $740 resolves YES if SPY touches $740 or above at any point during the week.
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on April 24, 2026 (Friday close) falls within one of 30 specified price bands (e.g., 6675–6699.9999, 6700–6724.9999, etc.). Covers all outcomes from below 6675 to above 7374.9999. Example: if S&P 500 closes at 7050.50, multiple Kalshi markets resolve YES (the 7025–7049.9999 band and the 7050–7074.9999 band).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.