TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 20 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$179,175
↓ $705 100%
↓ $710 100%
7,150 to 7,174.9999 100%
Closed: Apr 24, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 20 2026?
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket measures intraweek price extremes (HIGH/LOW during week of April 20, 2026) using 1-minute candles, while Kalshi measures a single end-of-day settlement value (S&P 500 index close on April 24, 2026). These are fundamentally different resolution methodologies: one captures volatility across the week, the other captures a point-in-time closing price.Hero Tip:
If you trade Polymarket, you are betting on whether SPY touches specific price levels at any point during the week—volatility and intraday swings matter. If you trade Kalshi, you are betting on where the S&P 500 index closes on Friday, April 24—only the final settlement value matters. A market can resolve YES on Polymarket (price touched) but NO on Kalshi (index closed elsewhere), or vice versa.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle HIGH or LOW reaches the target price during regular trading hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET) any day during the week of April 20, 2026. Uses Pyth data with split-adjusted prices. Example: HIGH $740 resolves YES if SPY touches $740 or above at any point during the week.Kalshi:
Resolves YES if the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on April 24, 2026 (Friday close) falls within one of 30 specified price bands (e.g., 6675–6699.9999, 6700–6724.9999, etc.). Covers all outcomes from below 6675 to above 7374.9999. Example: if S&P 500 closes at 7050.50, multiple Kalshi markets resolve YES (the 7025–7049.9999 band and the 7050–7074.9999 band).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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