TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$214,169,374
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,694,028
576,346
Markets across
14,631
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,037
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June? Odds & Prediction Markets
Time left: 21d:08h:14m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Intro
This market tracks whether crude oil futures will reach specific price thresholds during the first half of 2026. On Polymarket, the probability that crude oil will hit a low of $85 per barrel by end of June stands at 65.5%, with a 32.0% probability of reaching $80 per barrel. Resolution is determined by the CME Group's official settlement prices for the active month crude oil contract. Watch the final trading day of June 2026, which marks the end of the betting window and the deadline for the contract to touch either price level.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While Wall Street energy analysts publish price targets based on fundamental models, geopolitical analysis, and supply-demand outlooks, prediction markets aggregate distributed information from thousands of participants betting directly on outcomes. The market odds on Polymarket may signal skepticism or confidence that differs from consensus analyst views, especially as new production data, OPEC decisions, or macroeconomic shifts emerge closer to the Jun 30, 2026 resolution date.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the top outcome currently trades at probability, reflecting trader estimates of the likelihood crude oil reaches the specified price level by end of June. Prices adjust continuously as new information enters the market, including inventory reports, production announcements, and global demand signals. The $24,417,910 in total group volume demonstrates active participation, with $477,267 traded in the last 24 hours, indicating real-time price discovery driven by market participants' evolving views on oil fundamentals.
The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by whether crude oil has reached the specified price target. Resolution depends on official price data from recognized commodity exchanges and benchmarks. Traders should monitor the exact resolution criteria and data sources specified in the market terms to understand how the final outcome will be adjudicated. The market will settle based on verified price information available at the resolution timestamp.
Key catalysts include OPEC production decisions and compliance reports, U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes, and macroeconomic indicators influencing global demand. Federal Reserve policy shifts and dollar strength also impact crude valuations. Unexpected supply disruptions, refinery outages, or demand shocks from major economies can trigger sharp price moves. Seasonal factors and weather patterns affecting production and transportation may also influence oil prices as the market approaches the Jun 30, 2026 resolution date.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.