TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 13 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 13 2026?

Volume:
$267,384

7,125 to 7,149.9999

 - Kalshi

7,125 to 7,149.9999 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Apr 17, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

7,125 to 7,149.9999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$34,826
N/A
N/A
$9,452
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $710

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,866
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $705

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$885
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $690

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$724
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $695

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$256
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $685

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$228
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $680

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$112
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $700

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$82
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

7,100 to 7,124.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,895
N/A
N/A
$15,310
Settled
No
kalshi

7,075 to 7,099.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,014
N/A
N/A
$11,117
Settled
No
kalshi

7,150 to 7,174.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,983
N/A
N/A
$11,580
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $715

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,662
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

7,050 to 7,074.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,178
N/A
N/A
$9,215
Settled
No
kalshi

7,025 to 7,049.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,931
N/A
N/A
$11,691
Settled
No
kalshi

6,474.9999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,321
N/A
N/A
$9,804
Settled
No
kalshi

7,000 to 7,024.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,150
N/A
N/A
$6,114
Settled
No
kalshi

6,850 to 6,874.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,834
N/A
N/A
$5,667
Settled
No
kalshi

6,975 to 6,999.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,806
N/A
N/A
$5,206
Settled
No
kalshi

6,900 to 6,924.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,476
N/A
N/A
$4,339
Settled
No
kalshi

6,950 to 6,974.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,494
N/A
N/A
$4,414
Settled
No
kalshi

7,175 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,704
N/A
N/A
$3,372
Settled
No
kalshi

6,925 to 6,949.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,482
N/A
N/A
$3,751
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $660

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,244
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

6,875 to 6,899.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,855
N/A
N/A
$2,553
Settled
No
kalshi

6,800 to 6,824.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,095
N/A
N/A
$1,840
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 44

Description

These markets collectively assess whether SPY will reach specific price levels (highs ranging from $685–$715; lows ranging from $650–$680) during regular trading hours in the week of April 13, 2026. Each market resolves independently as a binary YES/NO based on whether the target price is touched at any point during that week, using 1-minute candle data.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses intraweek 1-minute candle highs/lows on SPY (an ETF proxy for S&P 500), while Kalshi uses end-of-day S&P 500 index values on a single date (April 17, 2026). The instruments, granularity, and resolution timing differ fundamentally.Hero tip: If you trade Polymarket, you are betting on whether SPY touches specific price levels at any point during the week via 1-minute candles; if you trade Kalshi, you are betting on where the S&P 500 index closes on Friday April 17 only. SPY intraweek volatility can easily breach Polymarket thresholds even if the index closes outside Kalshi bands. Polymarket offers continuous price discovery; Kalshi offers a single snapshot. Do not assume correlated outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if SPY (the ETF) touches a specified HIGH or LOW price at any point during the week of April 13–17, 2026, measured via 1-minute candles during regular trading hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET). Resolution source is Pyth 1-minute candle data. Prices are exact, unadjusted for rounding. In case of data unavailability, falls back to official daily high/low from the primary exchange. Covers 13 HIGH thresholds ($685–$715) and 4 LOW thresholds ($650–$680).
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if the S&P 500 index (not SPY) closes within one of 30 specified 25-point bands on April 17, 2026 (Friday, end-of-day). Bands range from below 6475 to above 7174.9999. Resolution is a single point-in-time snapshot, not a range scan. No fallback source specified; no mention of 1-minute candles or intraweek volatility.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.