TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 13 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets
Volume:
$267,384
↑ $710 100%
7,125 to 7,149.9999 100%
↑ $705 100%
Closed: Apr 17, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets collectively assess whether SPY will reach specific price levels (highs ranging from $685–$715; lows ranging from $650–$680) during regular trading hours in the week of April 13, 2026. Each market resolves independently as a binary YES/NO based on whether the target price is touched at any point during that week, using 1-minute candle data.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses intraweek 1-minute candle highs/lows on SPY (an ETF proxy for S&P 500), while Kalshi uses end-of-day S&P 500 index values on a single date (April 17, 2026). The instruments, granularity, and resolution timing differ fundamentally.Hero Tip:
If you trade Polymarket, you are betting on whether SPY touches specific price levels at any point during the week via 1-minute candles; if you trade Kalshi, you are betting on where the S&P 500 index closes on Friday April 17 only. SPY intraweek volatility can easily breach Polymarket thresholds even if the index closes outside Kalshi bands. Polymarket offers continuous price discovery; Kalshi offers a single snapshot. Do not assume correlated outcomes.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Resolves YES if SPY (the ETF) touches a specified HIGH or LOW price at any point during the week of April 13–17, 2026, measured via 1-minute candles during regular trading hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET). Resolution source is Pyth 1-minute candle data. Prices are exact, unadjusted for rounding. In case of data unavailability, falls back to official daily high/low from the primary exchange. Covers 13 HIGH thresholds ($685–$715) and 4 LOW thresholds ($650–$680).Kalshi:
Resolves YES if the S&P 500 index (not SPY) closes within one of 30 specified 25-point bands on April 17, 2026 (Friday, end-of-day). Bands range from below 6475 to above 7174.9999. Resolution is a single point-in-time snapshot, not a range scan. No fallback source specified; no mention of 1-minute candles or intraweek volatility.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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