TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will Gold (GC) settle at in March? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Mar 30, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of March 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources and timing. Polymarket resolves on CME's official settlement price for the Active Month Gold futures contract on the final trading day of March 2026, while Kalshi resolves on the open gold price at 5 PM EDT on March 31, 2026. These are distinct data sources that may produce different values, and Kalshi's reliance on a specific clock time (5 PM EDT) rather than CME's official settlement creates a critical divergence in outcome.Hero Tip:
Do not assume the same gold price will resolve both platforms identically. Polymarket uses CME's official settlement methodology (which may differ from last-traded or intraday prices), while Kalshi uses the open price at a specific time on March 31. If you trade both platforms, verify which price source is active on settlement day and account for potential timing and methodology mismatches.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves on CME Group's official settlement price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures on the final trading day of March 2026. Uses CME's published settlement methodology, which may differ from last-traded, intraday, or indicative prices. Brackets are $125 wide (e.g., $5,250–$5,375) with ties resolved to the higher bracket. Quote: 'Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves on the open gold price at 5 PM EDT on March 31, 2026. Uses $40 or $60 wide brackets (e.g., $5,460–$5,499.99) with no tie-breaking rule. Covers the full price spectrum with 40 granular Yes/No outcomes. Quote: 'If the open gold price for March 31, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is between [price range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
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