TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Time left: 11d:17h:36m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?
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Trade on Predict
At 59¢ buys you 169 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $169 | Net Profit: $69 Multiplier: 1.69x | ROI: 69% APY not meaningful 11 days to resolution
Trade on Polymarket
At 57¢ buys you 175 shares | Odds: 57% Total Payout: $175 | Net Profit: $75 Multiplier: 1.75x | ROI: 75% APY not meaningful 11 days to resolution
Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 56¢ buys you 179 shares | Odds: 56% Total Payout: $179 | Net Profit: $79 Multiplier: 1.79x | ROI: 79% APY not meaningful 11 days to resolution
Trade on Limitless
At 55¢ buys you 182 shares | Odds: 55% Total Payout: $182 | Net Profit: $82 Multiplier: 1.82x | ROI: 82% APY not meaningful 11 days to resolutionIntro
This market tracks the outcome of the Tunisia vs. Japan FIFA World Cup soccer match scheduled for June 21, 2026, resolving based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Aggregated across Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless, and Predict, the consensus probability shows Japan favored at 54.5% to win. Resolution will be determined by the official FIFA World Cup match result on June 21, 2026. Watch for team news and lineup announcements in the days leading up to kickoff, as injuries or tactical changes could shift market expectations.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Date mismatch between Limitless (June 20) and three other platforms (June 21), combined with divergent cancellation and non-completion handling across platforms.Hero Tip:
Confirm the official FIFA World Cup 2026 fixture date before trading. If June 21 is correct, Limitless markets may reference the wrong date. Monitor cancellation risk carefully: Polymarket and Predict resolve Draw to YES on cancellation, while win markets resolve NO. Limitless resolves Draw to YES if no official result by July 20 deadline. Kalshi has no explicit cancellation clause.Critical Divergence Points:
Limitless:
Markets dated June 20, 2026 with July 20, 2026 04:00 UTC resolution deadline. Draw resolves YES if match is not completed with official result by deadline. Win markets resolve NO if not completed. Key quote: 'If the club does not win or if the match is not completed with an official result by July 20, 2026, 04:00 UTC, the market will resolve to NO.'Kalshi:
Markets dated June 21, 2026. All three outcome markets (Tunisia win, Japan win, Tie) resolve YES if that outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation or non-completion clause provided. Key quote: 'If [outcome] wins the Tunisia vs Japan professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 21, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Markets dated June 21, 2026. Draw market resolves YES if game ends in draw OR if canceled entirely with no make-up game. Win markets (Tunisia and Japan) resolve NO if canceled. Markets remain open if postponed. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (Draw); 'this market will resolve No' (Win markets).Predict:
Markets dated June 21, 2026 (Sunday). Draw market resolves YES if canceled with no make-up game. Win markets resolve NO if canceled. Markets remain open if postponed. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (Draw); 'this market will resolve to No' (Win markets).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Limitless operate independently of traditional sportsbooks, often reflecting different risk profiles and participant bases. While sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. For Tunisia vs. Japan, prediction market odds may diverge from sportsbook lines due to differences in liquidity, regulatory constraints, and the types of bettors active on each platform. Comparing the two can highlight arbitrage opportunities or consensus shifts in market perception.
Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Limitless serve distinct user bases, operate under different regulatory frameworks, and may have varying liquidity pools for this match. Kalshi currently shows while Limitless reflects , a spread of percentage points. Price differences arise from timing lags in information flow, distinct fee structures, platform-specific trading incentives, and the natural friction between separate order books. Traders exploit these gaps through arbitrage, gradually aligning prices toward equilibrium.
The Tunisia vs. Japan market resolves on Jun 21, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official result of the match as recorded by the relevant sporting authority. The outcome will reflect the final score and any applicable rules governing draws, extra time, or penalty shootouts under the competition's framework. Once the match concludes and results are confirmed, the market settles automatically based on the predetermined criteria linked to each outcome option.
Key catalysts include team news such as injuries to star players, lineup announcements, and recent form leading into the match. Tactical shifts, coaching changes, or public statements from either camp can shift trader sentiment. Weather conditions at the venue, head-to-head historical records, and qualifying performance may influence positioning. Major upsets in related matches or unexpected geopolitical developments could also trigger repricing. Real-time odds on Kalshi and Limitless will reflect these signals as new information emerges, allowing traders to adjust positions ahead of kickoff.
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